NatNat, Moni, Ryan, and Landy discussed the World Cup including Ronaldo and Neymar possibly not retiring, a 40 year old goalkeeper getting recruited by Miami, and Mexico's hospitality winning praise from British fans. They covered a red card rescinded after Trump's call sparking VAR and FIFA debate with guests and Ryan sharing referee analysis ideas. NatNat highlighted Panini World Cup NFTs selling for big profits after low buys.
Ryan received multiple DMs from accounts claiming to be Ansem promoting a token with drainer links. NatNat noted nothing screams alt season like inbox drainer scams as people try to unload bags.
Landy explained CDS spreads rose on names like CleanSpark but called it a nothing burger showing only targeted fear not systemic risk. He pointed to internal market rotation from semiconductors into high quality dividend stocks lifting the Dow while SPY and Nasdaq consolidated.
0:30:58Q3-Q4 dump risk
He noted a monthly close below 55k would be concerning for structure while the meme economy heats up like before last cycle's macro bottom.
0:33:1765k, 68-74k, 82.8k lower high
Ryan and Landy discussed how strong dollar plus cheap oil creates deflationary pressure enabling Fed cuts and refinancing to reduce interest payments. Landy said this environment lets Warsh lower the balance sheet while warning a too strong dollar hurts new trade deals signed when the dollar was weak.
“Got it. Great great points. And definitely Dixie and Oi are two things that are imperative to keep your eye on in terms of where the market dynamics are and what we think the market's gonna do next.”
AAll Things Crypto0:36:26Share on X
“Obviously, different magnitudes for those dumps, but, also, a lot of people forget that it wasn't just q one to q two last year where we saw that big 22% move down in, like, SPY and Nasdaq and so on and so forth. But we saw the q three to q four dump off as well, the end of summer dump. So be aware that that might ...”
Landy0:27:02Share on X
“Ideally, you'd want a stronger dollar or a strengthened dollar with a low cost energy market that's continuing to get cheaper. And then at the same time, though, you can't have the dollar get too strong because we have all of these trade deals that have been signed now with these various nations for different goods…”
“Right? And we're gonna start seeing that reflected in the numbers for these lower oil prices. When you have stronger dollars, that means the dollar can buy more in a deflationary price environment. That's good. That means that you're getting some deflationary pressures. Now the the the contention always is, well…”
“I was sitting next to a friend of mine many, many years ago, and he looks... This girl comes up and he... She starts talking to him at the bar. And he said, you look like a blown out CDS spread, and she had no idea what he was talking about. But, essentially, what that joke is, if you look like a blown out CDS…”
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