ATC: $BTC And Clarity

# ATC: $BTC And Clarity | 2026-09-15 | https://x.com/i/spaces/1dKrPryjXXAJX | status: approved
# Speaker attributions verified via X captions, ECAPA voiceprints, and on-air handoffs where marked confirmed.

[0:01:13] NatNat @Natnatx007: What's up, DocNooNoo? Thanks for sharing it in the chats.
[0:01:25] NatNat @Natnatx007: Sup, Milo? I'm sending you guys an invite. Looks like it's just gonna be the three of us for today,
[0:01:34] NatNat @Natnatx007: which is absolutely fine. Let me see if I can, like, text David.
[0:01:43] NatNat @Natnatx007: Man, you know... Guys know what I was reading on earlier today before the space started? So remember how we had that space with Leopard... Leopold? He is back at it. He's got a whole bunch of calls. Oh my god. And the positions that he's in, they're down. So are they gonna shake him up again like they did previously? You think they are, Myrtle?
[0:02:18] NatNat @Natnatx007: Can they send MU just a little bit higher?
[0:02:26] Milo @0dteSPY: Didn't he go heavy in CoreWeave?
[0:02:30] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. So he went heavy on quite a few. I actually have have the list, but, man, if they shake him out again, I think they are really targeting him. And I think that if he gets shake... If he gets shaken out again, there's no way... There's just no way he's gonna... You think he's gonna come back for a third time? I think he's gonna be done if he gets shaken out.
[0:02:54] Milo @0dteSPY: Yeah. But it's other people's money. Right?
[0:02:57] Moni @monitalan: That's true. What are you talking about?
[0:03:00] NatNat @Natnatx007: So Leopold, remember how we had, we had an entire space dedicated to him when he got shaken out?
[0:03:08] Moni @monitalan: Yes.
[0:03:09] NatNat @Natnatx007: So he is back with a brand new portfolio. So he's got he's got SanDisk. He has, he has a Sandisk Sandisk long, an MU long, Bloom Energy, TSM, Nubis, and and Enbis. He went he went big on Corweave, Quartz, STM, Applied Digital, Riot, Chaz, Iron. Oh, man.
[0:03:47] Milo @0dteSPY: That's the degen port.
[0:03:52] NatNat @Natnatx007: That is the degen port. I just feel so bad for him now.
[0:03:58] Moni @monitalan: Why? If he's back, it's because he has the money to be back. No?
[0:04:04] NatNat @Natnatx007: That that is true. But now these positions are down already.
[0:04:11] Moni @monitalan: But he's gonna come back. He's... He has access. I don't feel bad for him. He's making the decisions. No?
[0:04:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: I believe... I think so. I think so. And you know what it is? You know what it is too? I I think maybe there was there was some kind of a back deal or backdoor agreement done between him and and... Who was it that that that shook him out?
[0:04:39] Milo @0dteSPY: Uncle Kenny shook him out.
[0:04:40] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. Citro... Citroen.
[0:04:45] NatNat @Natnatx007: So it's gonna
[0:04:46] Moni @monitalan: be Yeah. He'll be fine. Don't feel bad. There's other people to feel bad about. I don't think he's the one. Not to be heartless or anything, but I don't... Isn't he the one that then got married? Like, is he Is he that guy?
[0:05:02] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. He is the one. He's the one that got shaken out and then got married.
[0:05:06] Moni @monitalan: And, like, during the wedding, he, like, had people do, like, mock pitches like that? Yes. I don't feel bad for that guy.
[0:05:14] NatNat @Natnatx007: He had... He did mock pitches during the wedding?
[0:05:17] Moni @monitalan: Something like that. I'm gonna send you I'm gonna send you the... What people were saying happened at his wedding. And then you won't feel bad. I feel bad for the wife, not necessarily.
[0:05:30] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think she's like she's like an in... Someone from SpaceX, is it? Or OpenAI. OpenAI. No?
[0:05:36] Moni @monitalan: I don't remember. Yeah. I mean, she's probably... She probably was happy with it too. Anyhoo, we digress.
[0:05:47] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. Let's see how to bread. Bread. Hey,
[0:05:52] Bread @_ToastMalone: GM gang. Not a not a whole lot. Looking for... What... What's what's the update, the TLDR on the CLARITY Act? Did it pass? Is it not passing? It's dead. It died. Wow.
[0:06:06] Moni @monitalan: And four Republicans... By the way, can we talk about who voted against it? I was shocked that... What's... Josh Holly, right, voted against it, other republican... Republican senator from Illinois. He voted. I was shocked he voted against it.
[0:06:26] Bread @_ToastMalone: I mean, most of it was around stablecoin regulation, wasn't it, though? I mean, like, how does this affect the greater crypto markets now if it's dead? No.
[0:06:35] Moni @monitalan: No. No. The stablecoin was Genius Act. This was
[0:06:39] Bread @_ToastMalone: Oh, right. Right.
[0:06:39] Moni @monitalan: Overall, providing regulation for crypto. So I think the charts tell us, right, what it means, for the for the crypto industry. It just means that a lot of it is gonna have to be done through regulation versus legislation.
[0:06:57] Bread @_ToastMalone: So all these launch pads are going away then. Yeah?
[0:07:02] Moni @monitalan: Well, I mean, you can't... You know, I don't know if you guys saw that interact... The thing that that you could do with pawns where you could launch a token. Last week when you could do it and you could make a little bit of money with the pairing, whatever, because of the snipers, it was available in The US. And this weekend, they blocked it from The US.
[0:07:24] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think things are gonna get a little bit interesting. I'm trying to get Ryan to come up if he can. I know he's been keeping a close eye on on the Genius Act, but but then now what does that mean for crypto? For me, to be honest, yesterday when we spoke about it, the old... As far as price is concerned, the overall consensus for me was down either way. So this move that we're seeing now was not too surprising. And and, Monica, I think you and Landy mentioned last week that it was very difficult for you guys to see the CLARITY Act passing. And now that it's... It did not pass, I think it's gonna be a little bit interesting in terms of what they do next. Or do they veto the bill? Do they create another one? Do they update it as they go?
[0:08:08] Moni @monitalan: There's there's nothing that's gonna happen between now and the midterms. Nothing... What happens next will be defined by the midterms. So I think at this point, you're not gonna see anything happened. And some of the... Who's the senator who's the big advocate for for crypto? She's stepping down. Right? She's retiring from the senate, so you're losing at least one of the strongest voices in crypto from from the senate. So I think you're gonna have a hard time. Remember, yesterday, I did say I was a little optimistic because of the ethics language that was added, but it all depended on the meeting that was happening last night with the Democrats. And the Democrats walked out and said it it wasn't enough, but the language that was added wasn't enough. And so I knew this morning. I was like, why are people surprised? We knew last night this was dead in the water.
[0:09:04] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. You're absolutely right. But I I I think part... Because I was on another space yesterday prior to this one, and I think part of it is people just being hopeful, looking for something to hold on to in terms of what can make, the prices go up, prices increase. Because I think at the end of the day, if you're in in Bitcoin or you're in crypto, I think that that's one... That plays a big role in it. Right? In crypto, the price drives the narrative, not the other way around. So the the individual I was speaking to on the prior space, that's one reason why he was looking for the Clarity Act to pass because for him, that would meant, you know, price would go up.
[0:09:43] Moni @monitalan: Yeah. And here, Ryan said, Cynthia Loomis. Thank you. So she's retiring, which is very sad because she was one of the strongest voices for... That represented crypto for many years, in the senate. So...
[0:09:58] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. And I saw Elizabeth Warren. I don't know if you... Were you guys able to tune in to the live to the live play to the live video? But I saw... No. Yeah. So Elizabeth Warren, she was really strong on why this bill should not pass.
[0:10:13] Moni @monitalan: But she still can't script though. Remember that she was the person that wanted to have an anti crypto army. Remember? Like, two years ago?
[0:10:22] NatNat @Natnatx007: I do.
[0:10:22] Moni @monitalan: So she's been she's been... No. She does not like crypto, and this is the one time that she has worked closely with the banks against crypto. So I'm not surprised that she gave a speech.
[0:10:38] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. I mean, it... I think for me, it's gonna be very to see how it how it all plays out. I know when... Did she recently get... I don't... Not really sure how the whole political side of it would work. Right? But would would... Is she up for reelection at some point too?
[0:10:56] Moni @monitalan: I don't know when her... Let me check. Senator Warren, when she was elected.
[0:11:06] Moni @monitalan: But she was recently reelected.
[0:11:08] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. She was...
[0:11:11] Moni @monitalan: So I think... Yeah. She was reelected in 2024 or so. And she's not going anywhere.
[0:11:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: I remember what... There was one time we were hosting a a space, space, and and that's that's one thing that we met. This was prior to Trump getting elected. Right? We we were mentioning, and Cool was was with... Was, I believe he he was the one saying that in addition to the current administration, one thing that he wanted to see, and we all kinda all agreed, was, Elizabeth Warren taking a backseat because it's like a a black eye for for crypto whenever we try to get something passed.
[0:11:53] Moni @monitalan: Well, but I also think... And this... I do blame the the industry. The industry has made this a partisan issue. Most of the conversations and outreach they do has been to Democrats... I mean, to Democrats... To Republicans. One of the reasons that I think some of the Democrats were leaning toward voting for the Clarity Act this summer was because they were starting to have conversations with some of the entities that were giving... That, like, contributing to campaigns. But, again, there was this... Something happened that flipped the switch, and I don't remember what it was. But it was one of the stories around the the Trump family and crypto. So I think that's what had the impact on on this. So, ultimately, I think the the industry needs to make this a nonpartisan issue, and currently, it's a very partisan. It's very much a republican issue.
[0:12:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: I agree. Curious to see what... Who Ryan thinks because he jumped right out when she said that.
[0:13:00] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. I'm sorry, Nat. I was making sure my mom was tucked in tight. So, yeah. So Elizabeth Warren won, the last term. The next time she's up for reelection is 2030, so that's when she will face reelection. Look. I'm not gonna pee on the Democrats or the Republicans either way, because I don't think that's appropriate. But here's all I'll say. Whether you're Republican or Democrat, you always have your constituents or your big donors. And Elizabeth Warren's big donors are the banks and the financial institutions. So,
[0:13:52] Ryan @Rlad1776: you know, they have the gold, and it's golden rule. Like I tell my kids, he... He or she who has a gold makes the rules, and they have the gold. So she's gonna fight this as long as she can until she gets exactly what she wants, and she's got another four years.
[0:14:16] Ryan @Rlad1776: What disappointed me the most, I would say, is that this culture vote came down to kind of fifty fifty. Like, give me fifty four forty six. You know, I might feel a little bit better, but the fact that they couldn't get any Democrats over the aisle and... I mean, they literally wheeled Mitch McConnell in, you know, drooling on himself into the senate floor for this vote. And and I'm not I'm not making fun, but, like, they pulled him out of nowhere. And so I I just think this was all show and and horrible. And it... It's very disappointing because at the end of the day,
[0:15:14] Ryan @Rlad1776: a lot of large institutions need clarity in one shape or form to be able to, like, participate. Right? They just really do. Two of my best friends, one works for Goldman Sachs, the other for Morgan Stanley, and they're like, yeah. We're we're we're all waiting to go to the Ritz Carlton in Dallas for our training, you know, on on a junket. But until the clarity gets done, nobody knows how they're gonna have to participate. So it's... We needed to get through this, and it's sad that we didn't. I guess, is... But it... Is where my frustration comes from. I think it would be a sell the news event, but, ultimately, large institutions, particularly the FSAs, would have a rules of engagement on how to address crypto, particularly Bitcoin, Ethereum, you know, call it the majors, whatever you wanna call it. So it it... It's it's gridlock, and it drives me insane. So that's where I'll end. I'm sorry, Nat.
[0:16:34] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. All good. All good, Ryan. I saw Monica wanted to jump in as well. Go ahead, Monica.
[0:16:39] Moni @monitalan: Just real quick. But remember, so you had Susan Collins, Josh Holly, Jerry Moran from Kansas, and Tom Tullis from North Carolina, which North Carolina is not surprising. All Republicans voted against the bill. So, yes, you didn't get any...
[0:16:54] Ryan @Rlad1776: Tillis changed his vote.
[0:16:56] Moni @monitalan: Oh, he did?
[0:16:56] Ryan @Rlad1776: FYI. Yeah.
[0:16:59] Moni @monitalan: He switched to no after initially voting. Yes.
[0:17:02] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. He came back, and and he switched back
[0:17:07] Dave @DCBK2LA: yeah. So
[0:17:10] Ryan @Rlad1776: Right. Exactly.
[0:17:11] Dave @DCBK2LA: That hard
[0:17:12] Bread @_ToastMalone: to laugh.
[0:17:12] Ryan @Rlad1776: That laugh says it all, Monie. Like, absolutely. Right?
[0:17:17] Moni @monitalan: So it was a little cinema. We have a little drama. But... And you're right. Look. Ultimately, I think a lot of work is gonna have to be done, but I do think it's gonna be through regulation versus legislation. But a friend of mine who's, who's very active in the Democratic Party today asked me, you wanted this to pass? And I said, yes. And she said... So she asked me why. And I said, because we need clarity. We need regulation that allows us to operate in The US and that allows big institutions to have a green light or at least know the guardrails. And so she's like, why doesn't... Why didn't anybody say that before? I'm like, they did, but nobody listens. Right? It became Yeah. So what what
[0:17:56] Ryan @Rlad1776: so this is why I'm just... I'm quasi disappointed. Like, I'm really disappointed that this couldn't be passed as legislation. But at the end of the day, here's what's gonna happen. Right? Everything is gonna be done through executive order. Right? The SEC, CFTC, all these institutions are gonna come in, and they're going to streamline things. Okay? And and and maybe maybe this is what the administration wanted. But they're going to come in, and they're gonna put the rules of the road down, and things are gonna rip. Like, I truly believe that. But I wanted it to be on the books because it just makes the future so much clearer. Right? Because the next administration that comes in can undo whatever has been done by executive order. That is the problem, and that's where my frustration comes. So maybe I'm looking too far out into the long term, Nat, but I just wanted it to be put on the books. Like, can't we just get along for five minutes?
[0:19:13] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. You're absolutely right. And you you stated something very important because we did cover that on the show as well. The CFTC, regardless of what the the Clarity Act, whether it it passed or not, they are still working on their own rules and regulation, their own guardrails, their own, quote, unquote, unofficial version of Clarity just to to help the space move forward. I believe we covered that a few weeks ago, I think. So I think either way, there's still some hope it's not completely... Whether, the the guardrails are not completely over with. There will be some guardrails, and there will be guidelines to adhere to. I believe that's what the CFTC is working on as well. No?
[0:19:50] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. No. 100%. Right? And and look. Maybe... I know I'm old. I said it a lot, and I get yelled at a lot for saying it. But, you know, I've seen the Internet grow up. I've seen, like, software grow up. I've seen software as a service grow up. And there's always this inflection point in every new technological advancement where the government needs to get involved and do the right thing and remove obstacles instead of putting them in everybody's way. Okay? They... But but the the industry needs some clarity. It really does. Like, these rug pulls and these just launching and
[0:20:39] NatNat @Natnatx007: Do we think that that that was going to stop, by the way?
[0:20:43] Ryan @Rlad1776: I I think it would
[0:20:47] NatNat @Natnatx007: Minimize it maybe?
[0:20:48] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. No. It would it would absolutely suppress it significantly. I I I truly believe that. After reading the bill many, many, many times and all the revisions, I do think that it would have... It would have... Like, I don't know how many tokens get launched every day on pump fund, but it would cut that by 75% on a daily basis.
[0:21:15] NatNat @Natnatx007: That's an interesting point. I never thought about it like that.
[0:21:17] Ryan @Rlad1776: Of engagement. Right? Like, you are now... Like, you can't just go out there and just voluntarily launch something and rug pull without being scrutinized. And that is... That's that's the maturity that this industry needs. You know what I'm saying? Like, that's how I'm looking at it. When I when I first got into software and then we moved into SaaS, like, I'm like, oh, boy. Okay. How do... How does this play out? And then suddenly, you know, in the software as a service industry, right, security got involved, and you had to have your things compartmentalized. You had to partition. You couldn't be on the same server. You... Like, there was SOX compliance. There was SAS 70 level two. There was... I mean, all of these things came into play, but what it did was it told everybody who was in that industry how they need to participate. We're still in this place where it's like, you could do whatever you want. I'm telling you now, I got a list of names. Well, I probably shouldn't even bring this up. I got a list of names of people who are, like, pure Bitcoin maxis launching meme coins and rug pooling people every single day. It's... It... Yeah. I know. It's And then
[0:22:50] Moni @monitalan: if these are also playing NFT. I laughed because they're also playing... Launching NFTs on Robin Hood.
[0:22:56] Ryan @Rlad1776: And and I'm not gonna release the list until I can back test it all, and I have everything I need to know. But I got some pretty interesting phone calls last week. And it's it's... Like, that goes away. And real money real money starts to participate.
[0:23:16] Moni @monitalan: But I also think there's another part of it. Right? So you have that side. But then the other side is think about all the platforms that we don't have access to in The US because companies don't wanna come in here because of the regulations. Hyperlipid is one of them. Right? I think now they're gonna through... Do it through Kraken. But how many years... Unless you used... Of course, many people use VPN. But I just think you're keeping out good companies and projects, and those that are not too good are doing things that they shouldn't in The US. So I think
[0:23:50] Ryan @Rlad1776: 1,000,000. I mean, just think about Tether. Like, Tether's not incorporated here in The US. You know? I mean, this is the company that is basically buying all the gold to back stop The US, buying all the treasuries to back stop The US. Now they're into the agriculture industry. They're buying all that to back stop The US, and they're not even housed here. I don't know. May may... Maybe I'm I'm just too frustrated after this, and I probably shouldn't let politics, frustrate me like this. But I just thought that there'd be one thing that they'd be able to figure out and get together. I mean, for god's sakes, Russia passed the bill. Now Russia's a very different type of political environment than we are, but, like, they did. It's really still don't even have one.
[0:24:50] NatNat @Natnatx007: It's really difficult to speak on on these bills and not bring up politics because I feel like they're all intertwined in the moment.
[0:24:57] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. They 100% are. And this is this is a literal talking point. Right? And that... What happened was everybody went out on recess. They went all back to their respective districts or states. They polled the people, and they came back and they said... And and look. This is one of the things that makes this country so great, but also drives all of us nuts, is that every senator, every congressperson, they go to congress to represent the country, but also their individual districts or states. Right? And you kinda have to respect that, and I get that. But you would think that there would be some level of coming together and figuring out what is best for the collective. Right? But, no, they all went back. They pulled this issue, and they're like, no. More... Nobody's flipping the aisle. We're gonna vote this as a block because it doesn't matter. People are worried about gas. People are worried. And this is where I get frustrated with Trump, president Trump because he could have made this a lot easier on everybody.
[0:26:16] NatNat @Natnatx007: Landy's gonna have a heart attack with listening
[0:26:18] Ryan @Rlad1776: to this. I know he is. And and and look. I mean, there's no bigger... Like, I'm from Jersey. Okay? Like, I voted for this dude a lot of times, and and I've supported him through this process. But, you know, he could've timed it better to to force everybody that went back to their, you know, respective corners during the recess and come back and said, you know what? We don't... We can't fight the oil issue. We can't fight the war issue. Because all of this have been resolved. We can't fight inflation. That's been taken care of. Like, we can't fight any
[0:26:55] Bread @_ToastMalone: of that. Like, we have
[0:26:57] Ryan @Rlad1776: to take up this this bill on clarity and address it. But
[0:27:02] NatNat @Natnatx007: I mean, I wouldn't I wouldn't rule out a scenario in which he tweets something. I'd be surprised if he doesn't tweet anything.
[0:27:09] Moni @monitalan: I'm sure he will. I mean, I... Even... Yeah. He will. Yeah.
[0:27:16] Ryan @Rlad1776: And I'm sorry, guys, for being such a, like, a doomer here.
[0:27:19] NatNat @Natnatx007: Like No. All good.
[0:27:20] Ryan @Rlad1776: Generally not. I just... I'm really disappointed. I thought there was one thing that they could all come together on because, like, there's so much money sitting on the sidelines that once come into this and take, you know, Bitcoin from 1,600,000,000,000 to 10,000,000,000,000.
[0:27:37] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think it's gonna happen either way, though. I think it's... Once the CFTC gives their guidelines, I think people... Those those that are on the sidelines, the big money, that... That's waiting for some kind of structure, I could see them still wanting to be a part of of of of of crypto in general, mainly BTC.
[0:28:00] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. Maybe. No. I don't disagree with you in that, but here's the thing. Like, until it's, like... So there... There's... And you know this because you've worked you've worked for them. So take the top 10 largest financial institutions, Goldman Sachs all the way down to, you know, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, you know, JPMC, you you know, BlackRock. How do they operate? They op... Like, they have... They they probably pay out hundreds of millions of dollars a year to compliance and risk and attorneys to figure out how to work within the environment. Right? Without clarity, how do you do that?
[0:28:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: What if it's something that the CFTC addresses, or do you think that's... That that that is not within their scope?
[0:29:00] Ryan @Rlad1776: Well, what's the first question they're gonna all ask? What happens if a president, AOC, gets elected? And Xi'an does what the CFC... CFTC does by executive order. It's not law. That's the problem.
[0:29:23] Moni @monitalan: Yep. Brian, but I think what could happen... So you have the... I'll I'll bring the most optimistic view... A more optimistic view. You have the regulations passed, right, through different government entities, and then you have the midterms. Let the midterms pass. Right... You know, we'll see early next year. We're all gonna... Already gonna start to see things around the presidential election. But use a few months. The industry could use a few months to actually build bridges with the Democrats to demonstrate why this should not be a partisan issue. And then see if you can move something forward. Probably not right after the elections, especially if the Democratic majority, it's gonna be tough. But at least start to change the narrative so that you do get something passed. Now if there's a majority senate and... Or the house and the democratic side, it's gonna be really hard. But I do think that the industry has to build bridges regardless.
[0:30:26] NatNat @Natnatx007: That is... That's actually a really good point, and I 100% agree with
[0:30:30] Ryan @Rlad1776: I might just need a night to, like, sleep on it because I'm I'm I'm, like, so ho ho right now, and I apologize, guys.
[0:30:38] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. It's okay.
[0:30:40] Ryan @Rlad1776: And and tomorrow, I'll wake up probably way more positive. But, yeah, it's like... It just... It drives me nuts. And, I was expecting more out of everyone. Not not like us, the the population, but I was expecting more out of congress and the senate and the presidency.
[0:31:07] NatNat @Natnatx007: Milo is laughing as you said that you're expecting more.
[0:31:09] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. I know I know he's gonna laugh at me. He can kiss my ass because I'm older than him, and and every now and then, I'm allowed to be dejected. Like, screw you, Milo. Like, tomorrow, come on, and I'll be like, no. This is like... You people are all dumb. Like, this is government making sausage. I don't know. I just... I don't know why I expected more, but I did. And so I'm a little dejected today. I apologize for my ho kind of take on this.
[0:31:41] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. It's okay. I do believe, however, I think the crypto industry will be okay. I think Bitcoin is going to be a okay. I think once we start to get a bottom in and we start to end the q four into q one and and we're done with the bear... The bearish portion of the four year cycle, I think Bitcoin is going to be okay. Here's my thing, though. I... When it comes to crypto... The the crypto market in general, everyone's on the sideline until they see prices go up... Until until they see price go up. That's why I am so adamant, and this is a hill that I'm always going to stand on. In crypto, the price will build the narrative. You'll see, Ryan. You'll see in a in a few months' time, once BTC has bottomed out and there is confirmation across the board and everyone's bullish, I think either way, we're we're going to see that money that's on the sideline. I think we're going to see it flowing in. Granted, I I do understand what you mean in terms of we act... We need something written into law so that way it's not always, you know, upended and changed depending on who's at the White House. Right? I think you're absolutely right. Something has to be set in stone so that way we know... We have those guidelines, and we have literally clarity. And not us. Right? Institutions and and investors and hedge fund companies and all of that. They want clarity. They need clarity. Just like we have it in the stock market. Right? We have it in equities. We we have those guidelines set in equities. Right? We know people that do this and that. They end up, you know, probably in jail. We don't have that for crypto, at least not yet.
[0:33:21] Moni @monitalan: At least we have the Genius Act, and we do have... I think what we'll see is some regulation that will provide some guidelines while legislation is passed. But... So I I agree with you. I'm optimistic. I do hope that we can see some regulation that allows projects or, you know, the good projects to be in The US and not be... For The US not to be sidelined when it comes to innovation.
[0:33:48] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. I... And I I think that is why the f... The CFTC made the statement that they did a few a few weeks ago. Right? Because they needed... We needed some kind of a plan b just in case. Right? Because we don't want to hinder innovation. Innovation is how economies grow. Innovation is how countries grow. It's how countries, you know, they get out of... They're they're considered, you know, advanced. It is with innovation. So I definitely maybe I could be seeing it wrong, but I think they prepared themselves just in case we get the results that we had today. Call me crazy, but I feel like somebody all... Already knew. Someone always knows.
[0:34:29] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. I think I think you're right, Nat. You know? And and to be frank, like, I'm always small government, light touch. So I actually should be applauding this, to be frank. I don't know. Maybe maybe I had my expectations set wrong. So, Milo or Brad, I want you... I know, Brad, you're not a boomer, and I'm not a boomer, by the way, just just so that's absolutely clear on the timeline. I'm 52. I'm getting there, but I want one of you or both of you to tell me why I'm a moron for being so dejected right now, please. And, Milo, you you probably would do a better job at it, just frankly.
[0:35:20] Milo @0dteSPY: Okay. So let's do this. Right?
[0:35:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: Notice how quickly he jumped. Yeah. He unmuted. Yeah.
[0:35:29] NatNat @Natnatx007: And then we gotta say hi. We have to welcome Dave who is thirty minutes late to his own show. Go ahead, Milo.
[0:35:35] Milo @0dteSPY: No. I'm laughing. Hold on. So here's the deal. Right? Congress by design was supposed to be dysfunctional. Right? So if you believe in the the founding fathers and you believe what what they established, congress is supposed to be dysfunctional. So none of this should come as a surprise. Right? That is the foundation of congress. So do we get a second pass of this or a third pass or a fourth pass? Probably. Right? I would be concerned if we're going to go just based on CFTC rulemaking because you're gonna have field assistance bulletins and things like that that can always be walked back. Right? But, overall, this is what congress does. This is how they were designed. This is what they're supposed to do. They're supposed to suck. We're supposed to all hate them, and we do collectively. There you go.
[0:36:29] Moni @monitalan: He's not wrong. I also wanna say that they all knew. Of course, they knew. They knew they didn't have the votes. That's why they did the Hail Mary add some language this weekend that didn't really work for them.
[0:36:41] NatNat @Natnatx007: Agreed. Alright. So let's say hi to Dave. Dave, I didn't think you were gonna... You know, we spoke a little bit, earlier. I thought you were good to go, but welcome.
[0:36:52] Ryan @Rlad1776: Dave, your PFP is looking very bright.
[0:36:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. It's okay. All good.
[0:36:57] Dave @DCBK2LA: Yeah. My bad. My my cousin get married tonight, and it's a whole shit show amongst all these houses. Who's sleeping here? Who's sleeping there? It's an... It's a fucking... It's a nightmare. Sorry. But I'm here for now. I also had to go get a haircut. So, you know, the whole nine yards. And I probably won't be here tomorrow. Just a heads up to everybody. I got a new customer. I was doing a little schmooze over the weekend... Over the Jewish holidays with the family and friends. So but I'm here now. I'm here for it. I don't know what y'all were talking about so far. Is Clariat dead? Yes or no? Do we do we
[0:37:30] NatNat @Natnatx007: It's dead. Dead. Dead.
[0:37:33] Dave @DCBK2LA: Oh my god. Clariat is dead.
[0:37:37] NatNat @Natnatx007: Ryan, are you okay if if I bring you down so I can bring Dave in as cohost? Is that okay? No.
[0:37:42] Dave @DCBK2LA: No. No. You're good. You're good. You're good. You're Keep him. Keep him. Keep him. You're fine. You're fine. No. You're good. You're good. Ryan, stay because I don't know. I'm gonna be in and out. Don't know what's gonna be waiting for me when I get back to my house. So... Like, you're good.
[0:37:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: Okay. Well, yeah. So the Calvary Act is that, Monica and Landy called it. Okay? We're we're gonna give them the called it badge for this one because they did say last week that they couldn't see how it, it passes, and they were right.
[0:38:10] Ryan @Rlad1776: That might be
[0:38:10] Moni @monitalan: the good job, thing Monica. That
[0:38:12] Ryan @Rlad1776: Maybe that's the underlying issue that I need to needle out, Nat, is that Moni and Landy were right,
[0:38:18] Moni @monitalan: and I
[0:38:18] Ryan @Rlad1776: was wrong. That might be why I'm so hang... I'm so upset. Yes.
[0:38:24] NatNat @Natnatx007: You didn't wanna be wrong.
[0:38:26] Ryan @Rlad1776: That might be it.
[0:38:27] NatNat @Natnatx007: Wow. Sorry. Right? Being wrong.
[0:38:32] Ryan @Rlad1776: Even when my wife says I'm wrong, I'm like, well, I technically wasn't. And she's like, no. You technically were. I mean, like, it... It's just such a humble pie I gotta eat.
[0:38:44] NatNat @Natnatx007: Oh, that's so funny. So speaking of right or wrong, FOMC tomorrow rate decision, yes or no? We leave it as is, or we hike?
[0:38:56] Dave @DCBK2LA: Everything I was watching today is saying... They... They're saying he's gonna
[0:38:59] NatNat @Natnatx007: hike. Hike. Yeah. I saw that too.
[0:39:02] Dave @DCBK2LA: I don't
[0:39:03] Moni @monitalan: know. Remember, I said... We said he was gonna sit on his hands yesterday.
[0:39:06] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think he's still gonna sit on his hands. I I still think he's gonna, sit on his hands. The market is anticipating a hike, though.
[0:39:17] Dave @DCBK2LA: But the markets are forward looking. Yeah. So this must be already priced in.
[0:39:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. Look at you, Dave. Oh, that's too funny. Ryan, what's a u? And it's okay if you're wrong. Okay? It is okay if you're wrong because I could be wrong too.
[0:39:34] Ryan @Rlad1776: Feel like I'm on a bad streak here, Nat. I'm not sure I wanna throw it out there. But, you know, I I threw... I've got, like, between Fed hikes 50 bps and leaves it... Doesn't do anything. I... I've got about $1,250 in bets there, which one's gonna win... Well, frankly, in all likelihood, given my track record over the last, like, week and a half, I'm probably gonna lose both. But if I win one, it's gonna pay really well. But I think... I don't think they... I do not think that they hike. I just don't think they hike. And I know it's only, like, nine or 12%, but that that... You know, it's 88 or 91% that they hike. I just don't see it because 25 bips does not do anything. It doesn't do anything.
[0:40:43] NatNat @Natnatx007: What's very interesting if this were under Powell, I would 100% say he's gonna hike because that's what the market is anticipating. Right?
[0:40:52] Bread @_ToastMalone: The market
[0:40:53] Ryan @Rlad1776: agree because you had the dot plot. Right?
[0:40:55] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. But this time, we don't have the dot plot, and he... Wash wants wants the markets to lead. He doesn't want to make the decision. He doesn't want to intervene. He kinda
[0:41:07] Moni @monitalan: wants the want the wrath of somebody that we know.
[0:41:11] NatNat @Natnatx007: Imagine... Because Tom wants a cut, and he's like... He wants a cut. So imagine if they raise instead of
[0:41:18] Moni @monitalan: And the day after clarity fails. I don't know. I don't think they wanna make him. No. No. No. Latina say we don't want him back. Yeah.
[0:41:30] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. So he... I think he's gonna leave it at. Yeah. Powell, I would probably say cut.
[0:41:35] Ryan @Rlad1776: Right. I would raise. 100... Raise. 100%. But with Wash, like, he came out very explicitly in the beginning and said, we're not gonna give forward guidance. We're removing the dot plot. We're gonna let the markets dictate kind of how we're going to react versus reacting and dictating the markets. And I think he just comes out tomorrow, and maybe he's a little hawkish, but he says we don't have enough data yet. Again, I go back to... And, you know, I brought this up, Matt. Like, if you go back to PCE and CPI... Yeah. Okay. Month over month, a little hot. Well, actually, a PCE was not a little hot. PC was kind of in line. CPI, a little hot month over month, but that's due to the gas prices or the oil prices. But if you look at it year over year, they were expecting a point o three on year over year on CPI, and they got point o two. So it's actually flat. And I think what he's gonna come out and say is, you know, I know you guys can't see this, but in my opinion and based on the data that we've got, we've got inflation under control. Like, AI is starting to take effect, and all the other things are starting to take effect. I don't know. Maybe I'm wrong and and and and I have to wave the white flag tomorrow, but that's what I see.
[0:43:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. I see the same. Go ahead, Milo.
[0:43:25] Milo @0dteSPY: So I think they hold. If they're gonna raise, they're gonna raise after we switch to the winter blend because winter blend gas is always cheaper. Right? So that'll stall another month, but he still has Powell on the... As part of the board of governors that can vote, so they... So he has a scapegoat. Right?
[0:43:45] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. That's the thing they're dealing with right now, Milo. Right? Is is there so many... Like, I'm not gonna... I I pray to god that these people aren't political, but you know they are. Right? Like, I'm not that naive. No. So But
[0:44:00] Milo @0dteSPY: So if he wants to raise, right, he has cover. This is this is my point. Don't... This isn't about politics. This is like... So if they choose to to raise, right, Powell takes the wrath. That's my point. But you have Winter Blend gas coming in, which is always a little bit cheaper. I think that they can stall for until the next meeting and then make a decision. That's where I'm at, so I think they hold.
[0:44:25] Moni @monitalan: Yeah. That's great. Yeah.
[0:44:28] Ryan @Rlad1776: I hadn't even thought about that, but you're absolutely right. We are one month away from Winter Blend. We're 100%.
[0:44:36] NatNat @Natnatx007: So would you guys mind, diving into Winter Blend just for those that aren't aware of what that is?
[0:44:45] NatNat @Natnatx007: Ryan, Milo?
[0:44:46] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. So Winterblend becomes, it... It's basically a scenario where they don't have to use as much of the base product to create the final output. Right? So from a processing standpoint and from a refining standpoint, it does not cost as much money. And, generally, they have typically passed those cost savings on to the rest of the... Because, like, you have to run a a finer blend when it's hotter versus when it's cooler. It's the best way I can explain it.
[0:45:32] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. It's it's specific to the weather.
[0:45:34] Milo @0dteSPY: Right. Yes. So it's less additives is my understanding. Right? Less additives to stabilize the fuel because in the heat, right, expansion, things like that, so you don't need those same additives. So the the cost of... The cost to produce fuel goes down. It gets passed on to the consumer. It can be anywhere between 25 and 50¢ a gallon. So the theory would be that would have a direct impact on price. It gives them time.
[0:46:04] Ryan @Rlad1776: Right. Better way to say, yes. Absolutely.
[0:46:10] NatNat @Natnatx007: So we shall see tomorrow. Brad, what say you, my friend?
[0:46:17] NatNat @Natnatx007: Oh, I don't think he's with us.
[0:46:19] Bread @_ToastMalone: Sorry. Here. Distracted. Yep. Distracted.
[0:46:23] NatNat @Natnatx007: All good. Brett, plea... Please come up here
[0:46:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: and make me feel
[0:46:26] Bread @_ToastMalone: like Fuck.
[0:46:27] Ryan @Rlad1776: Please come up and make me feel like an asshole for for for being so dejected. Please,
[0:46:33] Dave @DCBK2LA: Brett.
[0:46:33] Bread @_ToastMalone: Oh, yeah. I mean, if you believe in anything the government does at all, like Okay. Here we go. Reconsider Reconsider your your thoughts. Thoughts. Feeling feeling better? Better? I mean, like, the whole thing is a business. Right? I mean, like, yeah, of course, if you're trying to sell burgers in the parking lot of McDonald's, you're gonna get shut down. You know what I mean? Like, the whole government is a business, first and foremost. You know? Our interest, 0% considered ever. Right? It's about who are the donors, follow the money. It's the same thing with all this AI stuff that's happening now, all the doom or stuff we talked about it last week, right, with, like... It's a whole psyop. Now all of a sudden, these... Like, there's a lot of really great... I'll try to find some articles of, like, some people that have actually followed the money, followed the donors, followed the lobbyists, followed the companies that have invested in these frontier models and how they're related to each other. And it... It's... You know, like, again, like, just grab some popcorn, hang out, watch the show, you know, and, never surrender ultimately because, like, ultimately, they're going to probably try some sort of crazy false flag type something again. You know? Like, if you were here for 2020, you know, you're aware of what is possible for the government to do under the guise of our own safety. Right? It's gonna happen with AI. It's gonna happen with crypto. You know? Buckle in because, especially come midterms, like, we're gonna see some crazy, crazy things happen. And, you know, what what is it? Only believe, none of what you hear and half what you see or something like that? And, that's that's the case here. You know, Clarity Act was just kind of, you know, it was a a... It was there to stall everything to this point. You know? Will it get brought up again? Probably. You know? Like, will it get passed? Probably not. You know? Like, it's... Unless... If if it has the users and our interest in... Like, at best and forward, it's probably not gonna happen. You know? And that's just the nature of the US government, the world governments. You know? I mean, I could go down that whole rabbit hole forever. But, ultimately, don't get butthurt by it, man. Because, like, ultimately, you know, it's like, you know, learn to play the game around the system. You know? Hide some of the pink fifties under the table before anybody even suggests playing monopoly. You know? That's that's where we're at as a civilization, and so that's kinda where your mentality has to be.
[0:49:00] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah, man. I'm, I'm 100% behind you, and and I always do, and I always have. It was just this one thing. I was just hoping they could figure out a way to come together because I see the potential in this digital asset industry. Right? I really do. It it reminds me of what I went through when I was in Silicon Valley and then, you know, in in SaaS, like, I can see it as clear as day. And to let the government screw it up, man, it just... It... I don't know. That... That's where I'm at. I'll go to sleep, and I'll feel better tomorrow, and I'll be fighting with everybody. But, like, it... It's just one thing. That's all I wanted, and it didn't happen. And so shame on me for for putting some faith into, you know, the folks that I I put... You know, I backed or I I voted for. So my fault.
[0:50:12] Bread @_ToastMalone: Yeah. I mean, so, like, not not a 100% of the people in the government are bad. Right? It's only, like, 99 of them. Right? And, like, the 1% of people that actually... Like, you know, they they... There are... That 1% does want, like, you know, our best interests. You know? And, they really do care about progressing things, moving crypto forward, you know, making reasonable laws and passing reasonable bills that would, like, actually help people help Americans. Right? But, ultimately, again, like, it's, you know, he who has the most money has the most power. And a lot of times, the the 1% are just going to get absolutely snuffed out and be like, yeah. Yeah. Oh, well, majority rule. Sorry. Like, better luck next time. You know? So, like, get... I don't wanna I don't wanna poo poo all over everybody in the government. Right? But, like, you know, pretty much, like, if you're a politician, like, you should, you know, do things to yourself that I can't say here because I'll get fined.
[0:51:09] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. Well, I... You know what? I'll pay my fine. So when my kids leave, as my oldest did and my youngest is about to from college, the first conversation I have with them is, okay. You feel good about yourself. Right? You got a great degree. You got a good GPA. You got a job. Okay. Here's what you need to understand. It's called the golden rule. He who has the gold makes the effing rules. Accept that, figure out how to play it, and you will be just fine. Like, that's it. End of story. Until you get all of the gold, you do not make the rules.
[0:51:56] NatNat @Natnatx007: That is true. Yeah.
[0:51:58] Ryan @Rlad1776: It sucks, and it pissed me off, but I'll be fine tomorrow night. I just need a good night's sleep.
[0:52:04] NatNat @Natnatx007: We got... I got you, Ryan. I got you. I see we have Cliff. Cliff, how are
[0:52:07] Moni @monitalan: you? Welcome.
[0:52:11] Cliff Kaye @CliffKaye_: What's up, all things crypto? Thank you for having me. Shout out to you. Shout out also to Ryan. I saw Ryan in the room. Shout out to Dave and BC, bro. You were really putting down some... I I agree with so much of what you said. I only caught, like, kind of that that... The last bit of that context. Shout out to you, Ryan. Like, amen. Like, these politicians, know, they're not representing the people. We're seeing these folks get wheeled in to go take votes. We... You know, it's it's wild work out here. You know? And it is... It it can be frustrating to see these folks that are supposed to be, you know, creating legislation that is supposed to empower the people. Right? Help the people of America be able to achieve that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. There's no guarantee of happiness, and there's no guarantee of success in a free market. You know? But we can we can get that baseline where we have a shot at it. And when we have folks like Elizabeth Warren and and just the powers that be, you know, that are saying... That are being... To me, bro, like, what what gets me is on the one hand, we've got folks that are supporting no debt ceiling limits anymore, which means if the boomers come together and say, yep. That's worth a trillion dollars, they can just spend it and move on. And there's no limit to when we say enough. 45,000,000,000,000 enough. We have to at least vote. Right? So Elizabeth Warren is saying, first, let's let's remove the regulator on the printer, which means if I've got a million dollars, let's say, whether it's a 100,000, a million dollars, whatever, I'm a hardworking American, small business, I put my money away, the United States government and the Federal Reserve might say, we are going to print... Issue so many more dollars. And at the same time... So that... And and they just... You know, we're gonna allow unregulated printing. But don't you dare look at Bitcoin, the 21,000,000 Bitcoin, each divisible by 100,000,000 smaller units that we call Satoshi in honor of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin. When 1 Satoshi is equal to 1 US penny, 1 Bitcoin will be worth $1,000,000. I mean, they want us to not not understand that there are three fundamental qualities that define a currency. The first one is the hardest in the age of blockchain. One, a mutually agreed upon medium of exchange. Two, a store of value, and three, a unit of account. There is no part of the fundamental qualities of a currency that imply the necessity for the existence of a bank or a nation state. That, I think, is a powerful knowledge Rubicon that the people have to cross together. We're used to using currencies to pay our rent and buy our groceries, but we have to understand that fundamentally, what we we have here is a mutually agreed upon meeting of exchange.
[0:54:43] Dave @DCBK2LA: Fifteen second warning.
[0:54:45] Cliff Kaye @CliffKaye_: Amen, Dave. Yeah. All those three fucking things. You know, I think, you know... I mean, Dave is obviously picking up the the freedom and liberty I'm putting down, but shout out to all things crypto in the room. The point I'm making there, Ryan, is a free market is a solution with Bitcoin and Litecoin and Monero and Zcash and Dogecoin and... You know what I mean? We string those together with interoperability. We're unstoppably free. It's frustrating these boomers are messing up our liberty, but I think we can get there, bro. I think we get there. And I'm actually bullish on a Santa Claus rally. I think we get a a aggressive rate cut tomorrow. I want them to be as aggressive as they need to be and then hold it through the end of twenty twenty eight, and then let's build. Let's get momentum that we that we keep.
[0:55:29] Dave @DCBK2LA: Thank you for adhering to the 50
[0:55:30] Moni @monitalan: getting a rate cut?
[0:55:32] Dave @DCBK2LA: Rate cuts? Everyone up here saying, hold. Hold. Hold. I don't know. These... Us old timers are saying hold. Hold. Hold, CK. That's the thing. Yeah. I don't know. Great cut.
[0:55:42] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. I I think he meant increase. Right right right right. Yeah.
[0:55:46] Dave @DCBK2LA: I missed the increase. Yeah.
[0:55:48] NatNat @Natnatx007: Good. Good.
[0:55:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: Sorry. Go ahead. No. All good. All good. Alright. Good. Great discussion so far, guys. One thing that I did wanna touch on as well because it... It's affecting markets, man. There's a lot happening all at the same time. Right? We have the whole Clarity Act thing, but then we also have oil. However, today, something very interesting happened in the bond market. And we've been... There's been some shows in which we've touched on the bond market, especially the ten year. It is now... The ten year yield is now above 5%. Usually, this is when we see people... Someone step in, and we see the, the anti pledge res... Rescue team for the stock market, and everything goes higher. But this time around, we're not seeing it. Oh, we haven't seen it just yet. So I'm curious to see what you guys think because the the the ten year yield at above 5% is pretty significant.
[0:56:49] NatNat @Natnatx007: Ryan, if you wanna go first, that's fine.
[0:56:54] Ryan @Rlad1776: Oh, I'm sorry. So I think you have the Fed, getting ready to kind of launch some capital about... I I don't know. I read something earlier about 12,000,000,000 they're gonna inject. Right? And then, you know, you have percent continuing to try to flatten the long end. And so I think slowly but surely, they're injecting more liquidity, which I I can't... Like, after today... Again, I'm I'm not I'm not sure of anything after today, but I think that they will tamp things down a little bit. And I suspect after FOMC, probably into Thursday and Friday, you're gonna see rates come down. I think you're gonna see oil come down. I think you're gonna see
[0:58:03] Ryan @Rlad1776: I think you're gonna see the SPY and the queues hold, which have held, which I'm so shocked by, but have held very strategic levels probably rip up. Now I highly advise nobody to take that as anything other than supposition and speculation.
[0:58:49] NatNat @Natnatx007: Alright.
[0:58:50] Ryan @Rlad1776: Like, I'm just saying, Dave. Like, as long as the queues hold seven zero one, we're all good. And
[0:58:58] NatNat @Natnatx007: We got dangerously close today, though. Seven o
[0:59:01] Ryan @Rlad1776: three. We did. I know we did. But we came down, we tapped it, and then we're refinished. Right? Like, it filled the gap.
[0:59:13] Ryan @Rlad1776: Man, I don't know. Like, I I am so confused right now, and and and I probably shouldn't even be up on stage.
[0:59:22] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. It's fine. It's... There's just so many moving pieces.
[0:59:26] Ryan @Rlad1776: Had a vibe, I don't have a vibe anymore. Screw you, Dave.
[0:59:31] Dave @DCBK2LA: That might be true. It might be true, man. That might be true.
[0:59:34] Bread @_ToastMalone: You are far less confused with all this RSI type talk.
[0:59:37] Dave @DCBK2LA: I
[0:59:37] Ryan @Rlad1776: am Dave, I am I am officially... I'm following you, Dave. And I'm I'm pulling up
[0:59:42] Dave @DCBK2LA: from Matt D.
[0:59:43] Ryan @Rlad1776: And I am charging you $50,000 for that new PSP you have, which is mine that I sent you.
[0:59:51] Dave @DCBK2LA: I'm done.
[0:59:52] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. I'm just kidding.
[0:59:54] Dave @DCBK2LA: Love you, buddy. Love you, pal.
[0:59:56] NatNat @Natnatx007: It... It's... Look. The reason why you you feel like this... So the reason why many individuals may feel the same way you're feeling is because, as I mentioned, right, we are in a market in which there is so much happening all at the same time, and the markets are trying their best to navigate through all of it.
[1:00:17] Ryan @Rlad1776: I know that, but I'm supposed to have... Like, I'm supposed to understand this shit. Right? Like, I'm supposed to understand this stuff and and have a a valid take, and I just don't feel like that. And I'm sorry for... If I'm putting this out there on the timeline, but I don't know. It's it's all driving me nuts. We're so close to very critical levels on the indices. You know, today's nonpassing of the cloture on Clarity, it just...
[1:00:57] NatNat @Natnatx007: But do you do you even think that that would have made such a big impact, though? Because it wasn't even the final vote.
[1:01:03] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. No. No. What what it would have done if closure passed is I think it would have pumped or given a little bit of momentum to crypto. Right? We're just so very close on a lot of things. Right? Which is why I still hold my VIX calls, why I'm sitting in 23% cash. Right, I wanna deploy it because I think the future is bright, but it just... I don't know. It's just crazy right now.
[1:01:42] NatNat @Natnatx007: It is. But I think as time progresses, I feel like the markets will sort itself out. The markets always do sort themselves out. No?
[1:01:50] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. I I I don't know. Maybe I'm up here just asking for you guys to kinda give me some reassurance. I don't know.
[1:01:58] NatNat @Natnatx007: It's gonna be okay. Ryan, it's gonna be okay. You...
[1:02:04] Ryan @Rlad1776: Are you sure, Nat?
[1:02:05] NatNat @Natnatx007: I am sure. We we may get nuked before that. Right? But it's gonna
[1:02:11] Ryan @Rlad1776: Well, that's fine.
[1:02:12] Moni @monitalan: Look. Remember, we have ARC launching. We had standard reserve, whatever it's called, lunch yesterday, that new project. We have a lot of innovation and cool things happening. I think we're gonna be okay.
[1:02:24] Ryan @Rlad1776: That's what the... This is the importance of TA. So I'm gonna... Like, me starting in January to learn technical analysis, like, normally, I would I would be like, yeah. So it dropped down a little bit or whatever. I'm just gonna add here or add add there. But when you start to understand TA, you realize you wanna buy right and sit tight. Right? So there's certain levels that you wanna buy at. I don't know.
[1:03:01] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. And, you know, you're absolutely right, but that to me is a positive thing. Right? So let's say BTC does come... Let's say, for example, the four year cycle is... Let's say with CertainTeam that the four year cycle is still intact. K? What does that mean for BTC? It means that BTC might come a little bit lower, right, to hit some of these targets that we've been talking about for some time. But if you are bullish on BTC and you want to buy Bitcoin, it's... As I've often said, do you want to buy it at a discount, or do you wanna buy it at the pre... At a premium? If you're buying it at a discount, your risk to reward is so much better.
[1:03:38] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. I want 30 k. Like like, really, I want 30,000.
[1:03:44] NatNat @Natnatx007: Send it there so we can all buy some more. Right? Because I I think, overall, we... We're all on the same page in terms of of our long term trajectory for Bitcoin. We all see it above, like, 200 k at some point. Right? Or is it just me?
[1:04:01] NatNat @Natnatx007: Even if it's just me, that... That's gonna UCF, where are reaching
[1:04:06] Dave @DCBK2LA: out again? UCF, where say it's not you. My bag say it is not you. It's impossible. Okay? Of course, I agree. I'm just... I don't know how to feel anymore.
[1:04:18] NatNat @Natnatx007: I don't know how to drive. So I just No.
[1:04:23] Moni @monitalan: Not today. Don't talk to Ryan today.
[1:04:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: Like, this is why I brought up what I brought up earlier
[1:04:29] Bread @_ToastMalone: today. Like
[1:04:30] Dave @DCBK2LA: Tell me.
[1:04:31] Ryan @Rlad1776: Okay. So do you see Ethereum 10 k before you see Bitcoin $4.50?
[1:04:42] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. Oh, that was for Dave. Okay. My bad.
[1:04:45] Dave @DCBK2LA: Oh, I don't know, actually. That's a good question. But if I had to say, I don't know. I honestly... I don't know. Well No. I'd say no.
[1:04:55] Ryan @Rlad1776: You're no help then.
[1:04:57] Dave @DCBK2LA: Okay. Fair enough.
[1:04:58] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. No. I'm I'm busting your nuts. But you get what I'm saying. Right? Like, if you look
[1:05:03] NatNat @Natnatx007: at
[1:05:03] Ryan @Rlad1776: charts, Bitcoin... Or, you know? So it takes six hundred days from the end of the bear market, right, when Bitcoin enters a bull market to get back to the bear, the bull market all time highs. Okay? Roughly. Can you two years. Yeah. I mean, can you see Ethereum eight ten k before that happens? And if the if the answer is yes, then why am I not putting more money in Ethereum?
[1:05:42] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think that's a personal question.
[1:05:44] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. It it... Nat, I'm not asking this to the audience. It's absolutely a personal question, but you get what I'm saying.
[1:05:52] Moni @monitalan: Right? Your inventory. Okay. Yeah.
[1:05:53] Ryan @Rlad1776: These are the things that, you know, as I'm sitting out here, like, picking weeds in my backyard, like, I'm I'm asking myself. And I think these are the kind of conversations we all go through individually with ourselves.
[1:06:11] NatNat @Natnatx007: So which one which one will provide you a a better return ratio? Would it be Ethereum or Bitcoin?
[1:06:19] Ryan @Rlad1776: I think, no. It would be Ethereum.
[1:06:24] NatNat @Natnatx007: It would.
[1:06:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. Like, if Ethereum did a three to three and a half x from here versus Bitcoin over the same two to two and a half years period of time, assuming Bitcoin takes, you know, the six hundred days to get back to previous bull cycle all time highs, it's Ethereum.
[1:06:52] NatNat @Natnatx007: Interesting. But here... Here's the thing with with Ethereum. Right? If we just pull out the chart, even with... Did Ethereum hit new highs when Bitcoin did?
[1:07:04] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. It did not. Exactly. Which one's more has been has been horseshit for a long time.
[1:07:10] NatNat @Natnatx007: Exactly. Exactly. So I I know I I... We we spoke about the... Which one will provide you the the bigger... The the better return if they were to hit those numbers. But, realistically, in terms of which one realistically has provided a better return, realistically, hasn't it been Bitcoin?
[1:07:31] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yes. 100%. But you and I were talking in DMs with RingCentral at thirty one.
[1:07:41] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yep.
[1:07:42] Ryan @Rlad1776: Right? And in the better part of six months, it's now at 72. We were talking about c three AI at seven. It's now almost 12. We were talking about Sentinel, right, at 13. It's now at 22. So how do I apply that logic? Right? Like, things that are starting to look better chart wise, how do I apply that to the crypto industry? That's... That... I don't know how I can make it any... Like, that is what I continue to struggle with.
[1:08:28] NatNat @Natnatx007: But you know what? That is why that exact thought process... And we all have similar thought processes. Right? It is the reason why some people would rather invest in alts versus buying Bitcoin. Does that make sense? Because from... I was on the space, last year.
[1:08:48] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. 100% done.
[1:08:49] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. And the reason why, and and the conversation was about alt just in in general. And the the consensus on that stage was the reason why they invested... They would rather invest in alt versus Bitcoin is because of the potential of these insane gains. Right? So, for example, if you bought Ethereum when Ethereum was, like, $11, right, or you bought Solana when Solana was, like, at $4. Right? So a lot of that has to do with the potential of these gains. But, realistically, the the asset that has with withstood the test of time and that has proven itself over and over again as we've seen some of these alts shed 90% of their gains has been Bitcoin.
[1:09:41] Dave @DCBK2LA: Okay. Yep. No. No.
[1:09:44] NatNat @Natnatx007: I I get what you're saying, Ryan, though. Yeah. But
[1:09:46] Ryan @Rlad1776: it Yeah. Yeah.
[1:09:47] NatNat @Natnatx007: But but it is riskier. If, for example, it is riskier to invest for a million dollars in alts than it is to buy a million dollars in Bitcoin. Isn't it riskier?
[1:09:59] Ryan @Rlad1776: A one one hun... I mean, $1,000,000 worth. Yes. Absolutely.
[1:10:06] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. Because that... That's what I'm trying to get at. I think the risk is a little bit different versus, for example, the stock market where we can just... We can go through charts all day long and and look at, stocks that have great potential and buy them at at lows and hold them. The risk in the crypto market is a little bit different because there's no guarantee, and they they don't have any guidelines or any... Anything that says that they're going to hit these certain levels besides the chart. Right? In the stock market, they have revenues. Right? They have certain things that they need to do in order to stay relevant, in order to stay compliant. There's none of that in the crypto industry.
[1:10:47] Ryan @Rlad1776: But do we have that with Bitcoin? That that... Maybe maybe you just nutted down Yeah. The right question. Right? Do we have it? I mean, in in twenty four, thirty six months, do we see Bitcoin at $350,000?
[1:11:06] NatNat @Natnatx007: That's a great question.
[1:11:09] Ryan @Rlad1776: Oh, you're so good.
[1:11:13] Dave @DCBK2LA: No. Go ahead, Mona.
[1:11:16] Ryan @Rlad1776: You answer that. Go ahead. You take that shit off.
[1:11:20] Moni @monitalan: I had a question. I was not gonna answer.
[1:11:24] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. You... No. You need to answer now that
[1:11:26] NatNat @Natnatx007: you raise your hand. Let's go.
[1:11:30] Moni @monitalan: I've... I had it raised before. Right,
[1:11:32] NatNat @Natnatx007: ma'am? Yes. You did. That's right.
[1:11:36] Moni @monitalan: But I have a question on the... Like, what are the projects you guys are looking at? Right? Like, for example, I was just looking at the arbitrum chart,
[1:11:43] NatNat @Natnatx007: and it's
[1:11:44] Moni @monitalan: so painful. And it's interesting because Robinhood is paying them a ton of fees. Right? Because they're... The chain is built on on Robin... On Arbitrum, and I think they're paying them a lot of fees. I don't know if people just don't realize that. You have Hyperliquid, right, which I think they're entering to The US. It's gonna actually help them a lot even though I think a lot of people here already use some because they just use VPN. But curious if there's an alt or a project that's not Bitcoin or a theorem that you guys are following closely.
[1:12:18] NatNat @Natnatx007: Oh, yes. I think first. Hey, Vera. That's the one. Oh my god. That was a
[1:12:27] Moni @monitalan: setup. Besides heaven.
[1:12:30] Ryan @Rlad1776: Because every time you guys curse, that's what you guys have to pay in just up by asking.
[1:12:37] Moni @monitalan: No. But you should say why have that on? Not not for those cordless.
[1:12:41] NatNat @Natnatx007: Because if if you want a... An alt or a company that's tied to... That there's, like, some legitimacy and that it's not all fluff, I think Hibido provides that. Right? They have solid partnership with NVIDIA. They have they have a a whole sector of companies that they work with. Right? So Google, NVIDIA, and a few others. And what Hedera is is is doing... Because first of all, it's not even blockchain. It's Hashgraph Hashgraph technology. When everyone's screaming, I'm scared of quantum, what quantum's gonna do for bit... To Bitcoin, we don't have to worry about that with Hedera. Right? Because Hedera is quantum resistant. Right? So there's a lot of really good things that's going on with Hedera, but I I I think the market hasn't caught up to it just yet. I do think when the market does catch on to what Hiveda is doing and everything that they've been building, I think it's gonna explode. Not financial advice. You guys do your own research on everything.
[1:13:41] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. For me, I'm I'm looking at Litecoin. I know it's gonna sound crazy and piss everybody off. But
[1:13:49] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. That's a good one. I like lite...
[1:13:51] Moni @monitalan: Litecoin too.
[1:13:52] Ryan @Rlad1776: Like, Litecoin, I mean, it's holding these levels. Right? I mean, if you can get it under 50, consider yourself lucky. But if it can break 60 and hold 60,
[1:14:07] Ryan @Rlad1776: upside could be really good. And, you know, for me, Hyperliquid, because just the way that they've approached the crypto industry, they have literally flipped it on its head, and they're like, this is TradFi coming to crypto and going, yeah. You guys aren't dictating, and we're not just giving away free money. I mean, they've got an entire flywheel, whether it's per, whether it's type d, whether it's 21 shares with their ETF, whether it's Bitwise with their ETF. I mean, the only way they take on an ETF partner, I would say, is if the partner agrees to use a portion of their profits to stake or burn hyperliquid tokens. So that's... I mean, to me, that's the one that that could ultimately have the largest upside.
[1:15:18] Dave @DCBK2LA: I don't know.
[1:15:18] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. You're right. And you were actually one of the few that were on the stage. Well, a lot of us did see the the potential in Hyperliquid. But as far as its magnitude and all of the partnerships and things that they have done business wise, I think you were the one that that brought everything up, including, you know, where do you see them heading versus Coinbase?
[1:15:36] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. I mean, y'all y'all were in line, and you... I I think you... I think everyone saw it. Right? But you guys just wanted some confirmation. And and not you guys, but, like, there are a few pill folks that just wanted kind of the back story.
[1:16:01] Ryan @Rlad1776: But to me, Hyperliquid has the most upside. If they keep doing this and they keep... Because effectively, it's a flywheel like Nvidia just buying back their own stock. That's what they're doing, but they're using outside companies to do the same thing. And as long as they can keep doing that, I think the upside is is is a... No. I'm not gonna use that word. The upside is is highly likely versus a downside. Now if you can get hyperliquid at 58 or even 44, I don't know. I'm buying everything I can.
[1:16:49] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. I agree. I agree. What about you, Cliff?
[1:16:54] Cliff Kaye @CliffKaye_: Yeah, man. Well, first of all, this is an awesome conversation. And shout out to you, Ryan, for for talking about... Sometimes there's uncertainty. I had a great professor that had a quote. He said, certainly, there is uncertainty. And he was actually describing turbulent flow. Shout out to Navier Stokes and some of these AI models breaking what... What's... You know, doing a lot of cool stuff. For my part, Ryan, as far as the uncertainty, I am bullish now on the prior guidance from the SEC and the CFTC that said if our legislators do not provide the markets the clarity that they seek, the regulatory bodies... Because you got legislators and regulators. The SEC and the CFTC have said, we will give that to the market. So I'm kinda bullish on that. I think there is a case for a q four Santa Claus rally. I think on the money, I think we see Bitcoin above a 250,000 in the next eighteen to twenty four months. I think that's a kind of a base case over 25,000 because what is impressing me more and more every day is the rate of US dollar printing. That is not going to change. So these hard cap supply assets like Bitcoin and amen and a thousand times the Litecoin play. I can't tell you how long I could run my face about that, but, dude, 15 years old. Bitcoin is gonna celebrate eighteen years since the release of the Bitcoin white paper on Halloween night two thousand and eight. So that's coming up soon. And then 01/03/2009 is the genesis block. Eighteen years ago to the... You know, for for Bitcoin. Litecoin, fifteen years, one to four ratio, only 84,000,000 Litecoin will ever exist, and here it is sitting around $50 versus 75 k or whatever the heck Bitcoin is. So, yeah, Ryan, I think long game, bro, that is being slept on in the markets. There is no other asset that has the regulatory clarity. Speaking of clarity. Right? These things are getting grandfathered. Because here's the thing. Right? If we all came up with, Hedera and amen ATC, I gotta say, Hedera is doing fascinating stuff. TLDR is this. Imagine we all did something on the Hedera network. Right? So just like what's captured in a block, we say, oh, here's all the existing receive addresses, and here's the the UTXO set associated therewith. That present arrangement is like a unique fingerprint that we can articulate mathematically. We can take that shared state and make that into a shared piece of mathematics that we can actually wait like a signature over time, which allows us to actually collapse the the data weight of of the UTXO sets. So yeah, there's a lot there on the Hedera side, Hashgraphs, that is very exciting. I think interoperability ultimately is the key. That's why I don't hold XRP, but I think it'll be successful. I think that's a very fruitful conversation, and I love this. Like, where are the broader opportunities in the market, and what are those major levers? And shout out to you, Ryan, for, like, really diving down the technical analysis rabbit hole. For my for my money, I love to look at volume levels at particular price levels. Because when you say Bitcoin is, say, 65,000, and then you say me there's a billion dollars of volume behind, you know, 60,000... And I'm just pulling around numbers. But then let's say we have another number, 63,000 Bitcoin at 10,000,000. We know there's a hell of a lot more weight. There's markets making decisions, putting volume at these different price levels. So on the tech side, that's powerful, but we gotta think who... Who's articulating the capital? What allows us to get technical, markers and RSIs and whatnot? It's you and me and people making decisions in the open market. And so so, like, the the... Certainly, there's... So so, again, just really saying, bro, amen. Like, there's times when we can look at the market and go, what the hell is gonna happen? And I think the market is is acting exactly as we would expect it to when players begin intruding on the markets, whether whether it's tariffs, whether it's rent controls, whether it's, you know, legislators saying, oh, I'm gonna cross my hands and not vote and not give the markets, you know, rules of the road. You know? What what differentiates Bitcoin from a meme coin we launch? You know? But I'll land a plane on this. I am bullish on some of this. You know? I I think the market's actually reacting pretty well to the to the Clarity Act, failed vote. I think there are upsides to the ambiguity. We... Like, as a shout to Wendy O was just saying, I guess we don't have to worry about yield on stablecoins and then, like... No. Granted, right, Genius Act is a different part of the bill. But there are good things here, and I think we might actually get momentum back on our side with some positive statements from the SEC, positive statements from the CFTC. And if Kevin Walsh and the Federal Reserve do meet tomorrow and they hit us with a 50 or 75 basis point increase... Rate increase, honestly, I think that could be, like, kinda best case. If it was me running things, I would say let's hit them. Let's do one one rate increase. Let's get where we need to be and then hold. Because, again, I think if we increased rates by, say, 50 basis points and made a public commitment more or less to outside of heroic circumstances, we will hold this level to the end of twenty twenty eight. And then let's say we get positive guidance from the SEC. Let's say we get positive guidance from the CFTC saying, hey. Look. If you're using Bitcoin this way, you're da da da da da, good on, you know you know, Buddha and the baby Jesus bless you. You know? And then we start seeing markets cook, and we're not sitting here worried about US dollars that we know regardless of what we do, the printer is going to go. Because what I'm also not missing, yeah, to to land that is to maybe pass the mic back to to another conversation here, October 1 is the deadline for our defense budget approval. Okay? And we know that conversation is starting at 1,500,000,000,000. You know? So it's it's it's basically the tea leaves say that The US national debt is going to clear 41,500,000,000,000 before the end of the year and 50,000,000,000,000 by Christmas twenty twenty nine. So in that world where there's so many more dollars, are you telling me some of those dollars aren't gonna find a home in the 21,000,000 Bitcoin set or the 21,000,000 Zcash set or the 84,000,000 Litecoin set or the infinite Monero set, but it it tracks close ish to Bitcoin's issuance rate. It just doesn't limit itself at the 21,000,000. But I'll end the plan there. I'm looking at these these budget increases and approvals that that that are due before the end of the year that I just think makes Bitcoin and and and crypto broadly a very sexy place to be.
[1:23:23] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. Appreciate it, CK.
[1:23:25] NatNat @Natnatx007: That's a great take. I can agree even more, man. I I I think... I like to look at it from a positive perspective as well. I think crypto or Bitcoin, I I think we're we're going to be okay. Q four into q one is usually is usually when things start to bottom out and turn around. This time, I could see a really strong rally, though. Let let's see. We have to get to the point where in terms of price action, in terms of technical analysis, that we start to see... We get that confirmation that we need, for Bitcoin so it can start, bottoming out. Once we see that, I think all signs of a go. So I I I like to look at it from a positive lens. So let's see how it all plays out.
[1:24:01] Ryan @Rlad1776: I I know. And I generally do do
[1:24:03] NatNat @Natnatx007: I know you do too, Raj.
[1:24:05] Moni @monitalan: I know.
[1:24:05] Ryan @Rlad1776: Today has been just... It's it's been a tough day. But... So tomorrow, if the Fed comes out and holds, what do you expect?
[1:24:20] NatNat @Natnatx007: That is a great question. The market is expecting a rate increase. So if... I think it goes... I think markets go crazy if he holds.
[1:24:31] Ryan @Rlad1776: So no doubt they have been pricing in an increase, right, over the last
[1:24:37] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. They have.
[1:24:38] Ryan @Rlad1776: Two weeks?
[1:24:39] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yes. They have.
[1:24:41] Ryan @Rlad1776: So if he comes out and holds, everybody's
[1:24:45] Cliff Kaye @CliffKaye_: gonna
[1:24:45] Ryan @Rlad1776: be crazy. You think we rip higher or lower?
[1:24:51] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think we rip higher.
[1:24:55] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. I 100 agree.
[1:24:59] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think the markets are gonna go nuts in in a positive way. Alright. I do have one more story that I that I wanted to get to before we go ahead and and close this out, which is what, Brad posted it... Posted at the top if you guys could see it, which very interesting statement. Anthropic says they're highly profitable if you take out some of their biggest expenses. Okay. What?
[1:25:24] Moni @monitalan: You did not see the post that I did. I did a post. Have you ever watched that British show? He's a chef. And the woman says, like, something she would change, and it would make it, like, a British dish, and so he's Italian. And he's like, that's like... If my mother... If my grandmother would be born with wheels, she would be a bicycle or something like that. Like, it makes no sense. Like
[1:25:45] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. So big three
[1:25:47] Moni @monitalan: I love so much that.
[1:25:48] Ryan @Rlad1776: Was we are highly profitable if you strip out all the costs.
[1:25:54] NatNat @Natnatx007: Right? Boy,
[1:25:56] Moni @monitalan: they... I think every quarter feels the same way.
[1:26:00] Ryan @Rlad1776: I mean, what are we doing here? Right? Like, it's like me saying to my wife, honey, when I, you know, when I take my shirt off, I'm really buff if you just, like, forget about the fact that I'm 52 years old. Like, what are we doing? No. Like, can't do it that way. She's like, no. You need to work out more.
[1:26:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: Okay? Like, what are we doing? So that... That's... That comment is so interesting because, you know, they're about to IPO soon, and it's a $2,000,000,000,000 IPO. But they aren't even profitable just yet. But they are saying they are if you just remove the expenses.
[1:26:44] Moni @monitalan: But they have so much negative headwinds right now. Right? So I'm curious what's gonna happen. I mean, some of them already said he's postponing their IPO. They're not doing it this year. So Anthropic... Didn't NVIDIA yesterday said they're not being used to Anthropic? And so they have so much negative stuff. You know, coming out with that letter and everybody, like, not being very happy with that. The whole negative narrative that he brings... By the way, when you read his stuff, it's not that negative. It's when he speaks that he makes it very negative. So I'm just curious what that means for their IPO.
[1:27:22] NatNat @Natnatx007: Oh, that is a really great question. Sorry, Ryan.
[1:27:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. Go. Go.
[1:27:27] NatNat @Natnatx007: I was talking to... We were talking to Brad about this yesterday, and he brought up a really good point. And I and I agree with this. When you... They need they need to bring eyes into their IPO. Right? They need to build some kind of hype. Right? They they need attention, leading into their their IPO. When it comes to AI, one thing that we've noticed is fear brings a lot of attention into AI. Right? Fear brings a lot of hype into AI. So I think this is all just doing what they need to do in preparation for the IPO. Because I don't think it's... I don't think the world is gonna end on AI. And I am... I know that they know that. Right? I think this is just a marketing plot.
[1:28:12] Moni @monitalan: Well, yes. The other part that you have is a whole midterm election, and there's so much. I mean, if you'd look at a lot of the messaging, it's against AI. Right? So the... And a lot of people running for office are committed to use data centers and AI as one of the issues that they're running to to protect people, I guess, humans. I I wonder. I'm just think... There's so much negativity. Do you... How do you handle an IPO in that? And I'm asking this seriously. Like, how do you handle
[1:28:46] NatNat @Natnatx007: That is actually great.
[1:28:47] Moni @monitalan: All of this noise. And with all the... I mean, there's a couple models that are gonna come out from China and that are... And from other places that are open source that supposedly compete really well with with their models. So I'm just curious
[1:29:01] Ryan @Rlad1776: how you handle that. Two things I'll say, Monique. Number one, I never thought I would say these words, but I wish OpenAI was going public before Anthropic. Like, as much as I'd despise Sam Altman, like, Dario is... The guy just needs... So this is the second thing I'll say. He needs to hire a spokesman that only
[1:29:33] Moni @monitalan: He has a communications person,
[1:29:34] Ryan @Rlad1776: but they don't listen to comms people. Won't let them speak for him. Like, he really needs somebody that, like, takes his dipshit. Like, I I I don't know how to say it. I've met these people. They are brilliant. Like, they can sit down at a computer and create things that you could never even conceive in your mind, and they can do it. But when they start to open their mouth, you're like, shut up. Like, he really needs somebody that can take what he's thinking in his mind and spin it positively. But I really truly wish that OpenAI was going public before Anthropic.
[1:30:23] NatNat @Natnatx007: I think that fear is helping.
[1:30:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: Dario is an absolute... Like, he's just that guy. We've all run into him in in in the tech world. He's that guy that you would you would you would put every dollar in that you had behind him, and you... All you want is for him to just shut up I and build.
[1:30:47] NatNat @Natnatx007: Call me crazy, though.
[1:30:49] Dave @DCBK2LA: That is
[1:30:49] Moni @monitalan: being stupid.
[1:30:51] Ryan @Rlad1776: Like, I don't know how to say it.
[1:30:53] NatNat @Natnatx007: Call me crazy, but I think the fear is helping them. It's it's... Because they've got a lot of attention on them. Now look at Yeah. It's fair enough. We're even talking about them on the space. Would we be talking about them if everything was all fine and dandy and butterflies... Rainbows and butterflies? Right?
[1:31:06] Ryan @Rlad1776: We would. Yeah. But I'll tell
[1:31:07] Moni @monitalan: you this then. So much.
[1:31:09] Ryan @Rlad1776: The secondaries... Okay? On the secondary market for Anthropic, they've actually... I'm not gonna say they crashed, but they've gone down in value. Every time he speaks and opens his mouth and comes out with something that... I don't know how to say it, but, like, he means well and he's trying to communicate something, but he doesn't know how to communicate it in the right way, their secondaries go down.
[1:31:45] Moni @monitalan: Interesting. But, you know, that's why it's super interesting to me. Number one, I've never heard his sister speak. Right? And she leads a lot of it, so it would be great to hear her speak to see what her voice is. But it's funny because I watched real... This really great past... Podcast with him. And I think when he's... You can sit down with him for, like, an hour. Maybe it was thirty minutes. He... He's like, look. If you read my papers, you knew... You would know I'm not that negative, and you would understand how I put it... Everything into perspective. But then he speaks, and he just gives the... What comes out or what gets captured, right, is the negative headlines. And look. What bleeds bleeds.
[1:32:24] NatNat @Natnatx007: Exactly.
[1:32:25] Moni @monitalan: You give the negativity, that's what's gonna happen. So, anyway So, like I don't know.
[1:32:29] Ryan @Rlad1776: Compare him to Elon. Right? Elon says some crazy ass shit.
[1:32:34] NatNat @Natnatx007: That's so funny. Right?
[1:32:37] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yep. I got it. But but he does. He says some crazy ass stuff. Right?
[1:32:42] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah.
[1:32:42] Ryan @Rlad1776: But it it it becomes a headline, and it generates value. Dario says some crazy stuff, and the way he articulates it becomes a negative. That's the difference.
[1:33:01] NatNat @Natnatx007: You're absolutely right, Ryan. You're absolutely right. Great point, guys. I saw Milo came up. So we'll go to Milo, and then, Cliff, I wanna... If you wanna chime in, before we go ahead and and close the space out, that that would be great. We appreciate you, having you on, by the way. Go ahead, Milo.
[1:33:17] Milo @0dteSPY: If it's negative earnings, if it's just burning through capital, I have no interest at 2,000,000,000,000. Right? Like, that's just the way it is. That's me. That's how I... I'll do the Ryan. I'm old. I believe in PE. I believe in balance sheets. Right? So would I take a flyer at 400,000,000,000, maybe, at 2,000,000,000,000? No. Because I don't see the growth, at least not for five or ten years, and that's the problem.
[1:33:50] NatNat @Natnatx007: I agree. That's why when it comes to these IPOs, especially the ones lately that have been IPO ing at these insane highs in... Within six months. Let's let's have this conversation again within six months. I think SpaceX is gonna come a lot lower. I think Anthropic is gonna come a lot lower. And when OpenAI IPOs within six months, that's gonna come a lot lower as well.
[1:34:16] Ryan @Rlad1776: Yeah. The only one I'm buying on IPO day is Andoril.
[1:34:21] Moni @monitalan: Yep.
[1:34:21] Ryan @Rlad1776: That's it.
[1:34:21] NatNat @Natnatx007: Same. Same. Same. Same. That's the one I'm able to... I am willing to bend my six month rule for, just that one. Everything else is gonna have to wait. But go ahead, Calif. Curious to know what you think.
[1:34:33] Cliff Kaye @CliffKaye_: Yeah, man. Awesome. Awesome takes. The the Anthropic conversation reminds me of the second step in the sock gnomes from from South Park where they're like, step one, collect socks. Step two, question mark. Step three, profit. So, yeah, amen, Milo. You hit the nail on the head. And... But it's so crazy, man, when we were just talking about, like, interest rates and CFTC versus legislators is also, like... Right? Larry Fink warned that the American... The gross domestic product of The United States has to grow faster than has ever been preceded. So there is legit, like, one part of having that that SpaceX IPO breaking the 1,500,000,000,000 is because it helps hit those metrics, like unemployment numbers and whatnot, things that are gonna impact the psychology of the market. But you're right. Right? Give me price to earnings. What is this company worth? What is the the building worth and the and the the flour that you're gonna make the pizzas of. You know? Amen, Milo. Like, how did war... You know, Warren Buffett make his money? But, yeah, like, it's such a fine kind of thread, you know, to kind of... To weave here, when we're looking at these irrational valuations because you're you're a 100% right. I think that they might go for the 2,000,000,000,000, whether it happens, whether it doesn't. It's it's madness. But you're right that you... Expect the correction. Expect the correction because you're right. Like, at what cost? How much energy inputs? How much keeping up with the advancement of the energy? It's gonna be... It's going to be an interesting economic argument to make. But I will say this. I think the savvy understand that the native monetization layer for the value created by artificial intelligence is block chain technologies. Whether you think XRP or Bitcoin or Solana or Litecoin or Ethereum or whatever is gonna do that, three to five business days in legacy Swift systems isn't the way that agentic intelligence acting in swarms of billions of entities at once. Blockchain is is where that value is is gonna be is gonna be, articulated, and that's tremendously bullish for the space. Yeah. I think, kicking the can on the on the on the IPO is good. I think you could argue that an irrational valuation, in some senses, is necessary just to keep our... The psychology of our markets healthy. We need something backing these dollars, and SpaceX at least builds rockets. Anthropic can say, hey. We're building stuff. We need winners in America. You know? And I'm not, you know, I'm not seeing winning recipes cooked by Elizabeth Warren saying, oh, blockchain and crypto. It's it's it's bad. It's like, no, lady. This is where the value is. So So shout out to all things crypto. Thank you for having me up. It really has been a pleasure sharing the stage with you, Ryan, Monica, Milo, David, everyone rolling through. Shout out to you.
[1:37:14] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. Thank you so much for coming through, Cliff. We really do appreciate it. Alright, guys. Well, we've come to the end of our... The show, but I just wanna hand the the mic to my cohost and see if you guys have anything you wanna add before we go ahead and close
[1:37:25] Dave @DCBK2LA: it out.
[1:37:25] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. All I'll say is is, CK, great take. Like, if any of these IPOs fail, watch out. We have to... These things have to be successful. So keep that in mind. I apologize, Nat. I'm I'm a little doomer
[1:37:44] NatNat @Natnatx007: No. It's okay.
[1:37:45] Ryan @Rlad1776: No. It's okay. You know, between my mom and I had a I had a molar pulled and and then the crypto debacle. So I will be better tomorrow.
[1:37:58] Dave @DCBK2LA: I
[1:37:58] NatNat @Natnatx007: promise. Great right now, my friend. Okay? You are great right now.
[1:38:02] Ryan @Rlad1776: But I
[1:38:02] NatNat @Natnatx007: love you.
[1:38:03] Ryan @Rlad1776: And and and I love all y'all, and thank you for everything. And, Milo, keep, like, keep calling me old. I love it. Keep doing it.
[1:38:14] NatNat @Natnatx007: Great show, guys. Monica, anything you wanna say before we go ahead and close it out? Thank you for having me as a cohost. Great conversation. A little
[1:38:22] Moni @monitalan: bit more serious, I think, than other than other shows, but it was really good. Thank you. I learned a lot.
[1:38:29] NatNat @Natnatx007: Yeah. Thank you everyone for tuning in with us. We do this Monday to Thursday, 05:30 to 7PM EST. Tomorrow, I believe Dave mentioned he won't be here, so probably no show tomorrow, but Thursday, I believe we have the eye to the puppet. Or, Monica, either way, follow the page. Put notifications on. We're coming at you at all different directions. A whole bunch of news on a day to day basis. Thank you guys for tuning in, and we'll catch you guys next time. You guys have a great night. And the clap is for everyone.