On the mic
Summary
0:01:19Crypto Hiring Surges and Prediction Markets Heat Up
Ryan reported nearly 850 crypto related jobs across 3000 companies. Deer Point Macro noted Circle recruiting many ex Goldman and JPMorgan traders in North Carolina. Moni highlighted a Washington Post story showing prediction markets often outperform polls in elections, while Ryan mentioned nearly two billion dollars in media partnerships with Polymarket and others. Landy compared Meta's Arena points system to past loyalty programs like Pepsi Points and Marlboro Miles, saying everything is made up and the points do not matter.
0:01:19World Cup, England fans, Texas road stops
0:15:46Prop shops and FINRA
0:20:24WaPo
0:31:13DXY Breakout Sparks Macro Debate
NatNat observed DXY breaking out above 101, with equities gapping down, and noted 103 as a key level. Landy highlighted the unusual oil versus DXY divergence and said sustained high DXY with low oil around 70 to 80 could allow Warsh cuts, while strong oil and DXY together would signal risk off. Ryan asked if the world is recognizing the US as an energy superpower, with efficient extraction supporting a Goldilocks oil range of 70 to 80. Deer Point Macro explained euro and yen drive most of DXY moves and said capital flows into treasuries and the dollar will likely push the euro weaker.
0:53:54Prediction Markets Face Gaming Risks
Moni discussed the Washington Post analysis on prediction markets providing valuable election insights, even if not perfectly accurate. Bread described syndicates pooling sharp bettors to use Polymarket and Kalshi for liquidity and said similar gaming happens with super PACs and insiders. Ryan worried about donor class and PACs moving lines to shape narratives.
0:59:20Ethereum Foundation Cuts Signal Revenue Shift
NatNat covered the Ethereum Foundation cutting its budget by 40 percent, reducing headcount by 20 percent, and seeing nine senior departures since January. Moni noted former staff launching ETH Labs as a nonprofit R and D group and cited Octant as a better grants model. Landy said L2s cannibalized L1 after the proof of stake shift and criticized the foundation for open sourcing tools that helped competitors. Ryan stressed the need to focus on revenue over staking and grants, calling this the moment where technical founders must bring in operators to build a real business.
1:23:56Projects to Watch and Landys Bearish Outlook
Bread pointed to MegaETH apps like Euphoria and wrappers on Polymarket and Kalshi. Ryan highlighted AI agent transaction methods, rails and data hubs that normalize inputs. NatNat emphasized consistent revenue as key, with Hyperliquid and others setting examples. Landy gave a bearish take that most chains will die or merge.
Key quotes
“There is an albatross out there that you need to be aware of, and that is that even the perception of the straight closing, real or not, does not matter. It will raise oil prices. And when you have a strong dollar, that is going to be furthering a risk off move because a a strong dollar is creating a risk off anyway…”
Landy0:40:13Share on X
“Right? And, I mean, I I don't watch the Dixie a whole lot personally. Like, I kind of look more at, like, individual payers, but, you know, the Dixie... 60% of the Dixie is essentially the euro. Like, another 14% is the yen. You have, like, another 10 to 12%, which is the pound. And then, like, CAD and, like, I think…”
DDeer Point Macro0:45:18Share on X
“But the problem is is everyone that's looking at it right now is going, what is it gonna be in five years, and is it gonna be relevant to what we want to do? That is what the bigger players are evaluating right now. And look, Tom Lee can't even make the case because the only thing he's doing is talking about staking…”
Landy1:11:24Share on X
“And recently, today, CoinDesk put out an amazing article on what's going on with the Ethereum Foundation. So Vitalik did say that the Ethereum Foundation will cut budget, like, 40% budget. Right? So the reduction comes on the same day as Ethereum Foundation confirmed a 20% reduction in head... In headcount and…”
AAll Things Crypto0:59:20Share on X
“They should have stayed proof of work.”
Kantorcodes1:05:46Share on X
