On the mic
Summary
Continuation of Monday's show after the first Space rugged, hosted by NatNat from @ATC_Markets with Milo taking over as co-host, plus Moni, Ryan, Wolf and DocNooNoo (who missed the first Space because of the time change). Moni finishes her point that AI could settle into three or four big players (SpaceX/xAI, Anthropic, Google, and possibly Microsoft with OpenAI); Milo doubts Microsoft has the cash to buy OpenAI outright at about $1.7T and doubts Altman wants stock. The talk turns to robotics: Moni on physical AI and robotaxis in Austin and Houston, NatNat on drones, robots-as-a-service and keeping robotics names (Serve Robotics, ARBE, RR, BlackBerry) on a watch list while waiting for the chart to give an entry, and Ryan on Tesla's Optimus ramp and Xtend Robotics (XTND) as a narrative play. Ryan and Milo talk through building positions with long-dated LEAPS and NatNat explains how mispriced LEAPS (TLT as the example) can pay off on small moves. Wolf, who could only hear as a listener until switching to Starlink, argues OpenAI may never IPO and that Microsoft could pick it up as a distressed asset, says Windows cash flow lets Microsoft absorb losses, and closes by flagging 'physical intelligence' (PI) as the coming robotics buzzword. Market talk is discussion, not advice.
Chapters
Key quotes
“But I do agree. You can't have 10 players. Right? You're gonna have three, maybe four big players. And so I think the Microsoft prediction makes sense.”
Moni0:03:27Share on X
“Yeah. So, if you listen to the Tesla, earnings call, Elon is ramping things up. He's gonna... They're, like, they're basically going to be full production capacity, 10,000 optimists per week, within the next twenty four months. Like, crazy numbers. Right? So just keep in mind, guys. Like, I know everybody wants to…”
Ryan0:08:55Share on X
“So the beautiful thing about leaves is that some some of them are mis priced. So if you if you enter some of those positions... So, like, one... Let's say, for example, on this particular asset, once they have the twenty twenty nine option contracts available, if you enter one that's mispriced, one option that's…”
NatNat0:16:11Share on X
“With... Without acquisition, I I do think so. They're they're bleeding so much money. I mean, that's why they shut down the whole thing because they were losing massive amounts of everything. And, like, they they were spending so much on hard work because, like, their whole thing is they believe that building a…”
WWolf0:22:33Share on X
“Yeah. Great space. I just wish that I could have been more But, yeah, it's really good stuff, and I I think it's really interesting. And what's gonna go forward, I think it's really cool. And earlier when you're talking about robotics, I just wanna throw this one out there. There's a company or, like, a a fun robo…”
WWolf0:33:10Share on X
Excerpts
Restart after the first Space rugged; DocNooNoo joins
- 0:01:06 NatNat Wow. My bad, guys. Oh my goodness. The space just rugged completely as Monica was stating her point. Unbelievable.
- 0:01:26 NatNat I know. I know. I tried to reconnect, but it didn't let me happen. It didn't let it... Let let that happen. It ruined the whole space.
- 0:01:55 DocNooNoo Yeah. I I just came on at, like, 10:30, and I was like, where's ATC? And then I saw you guys chatting about the show had already started, and you rubbed it.
- 0:02:08 NatNat Oh, man. It was a great conversation too. Right? So Ryan brought out some interesting points. I think, Monica was in the middle of stating her point too, but I know it's late on their end, so I'm not sure if they're…
- 0:02:32 DocNooNoo Are you are you about to rug again? Because I'm getting a notice saying that the the host is having connection issues.
Three or four big AI players; can Microsoft afford OpenAI
- 0:03:00 NatNat Monica, my bad. I I knew you were in the middle of stating a very important point.
- 0:03:07 Moni But... Oh, I was saying, so, potentially, the four big players could be SpaceX, right, or whatever he's gonna end up
- 0:03:27 Moni But I do agree. You can't have 10 players. Right? You're gonna have three, maybe four big players. And so I think the Microsoft prediction makes sense.
- 0:04:07 Milo They don't have enough cash to buy them outright at 1,700,000,000,000. I know that we live in Fantasy Man with some of these dollar amounts, but that's a lot of money, and that would take a long time to pay off.
- 0:04:33 Milo Sure. But I don't think Altman's looking for stock. I think he's
Robotics: physical AI, drones, robotaxis, Optimus ramp, Xtend Robotics
- 0:05:29 NatNat Oh, 100% agree. So Tesla is investing in... Into into robotics. Google is invested into into robotics. Amazon is investing into robotics. There's a big amount of companies pouring billions into the robotics sector. So…
- 0:06:49 NatNat Yeah. So with that being said, don't fade the robotic sector. Right? I put out a list of a bunch of, robotic stocks.
- 0:07:32 NatNat Oh my god. Well, well, I've been recently doing some TA again on on RR, on rich robotics and I... With tech robotics, and I do think we're almost at that point where we can... We probably can... And potentially can see…
- 0:08:08 NatNat Yeah. No. I 100% agree because I I think things are moving a lot faster than they used to. Back when when innovation took a decade or more, we're seeing innovation done in half the time. So when it comes to market…
- 0:10:21 NatNat Oh, yeah. I see it. XTND. XTend Robotics. Let's look it up. Let me let me
Narrative vs chart entries; building robotics positions with LEAPS; mispriced LEAPS (TLT)
- 0:11:12 Ryan Yeah. These are... The the... These... At this... At these valuations, at these prices, right, that you're you're you're not you're not making... At least I don't think. And maybe this is where I go wrong, and this is…
- 0:12:31 Milo Well well, you could if they had the twenty twenty nines buy a handful of contracts on the cheap and then see what happens.
- 0:13:01 Ryan So so to me, Nat, like, these these plays, right, that, like, what we know is going to become a major narrative and and where a lot of capital is gonna flow... Like, you could see it on your timeline. Like, people are…
- 0:14:18 Ryan Because, like, if they had twenty twenty eights even, Milo, right, and you could buy $2 strikes for, I don't know, let's say $35.35 bucks. Right? If you bought a 100 of them or or or bought 10 of them, okay, And over…
- 0:16:11 NatNat So the beautiful thing about leaves is that some some of them are mis priced. So if you if you enter some of those positions... So, like, one... Let's say, for example, on this particular asset, once they have the…
Wolf: OpenAI as a distressed asset, no IPO, Microsoft's Windows cash cow
- 0:20:19 Milo No. I I traded surf before. I made money on that one. They're around, like, where I live. So you see the little cards, like, with the eyes. They're cute, you know, so I could see the appeal. The only thing with them…
- 0:20:46 Moni We can't hear you. By the way, I do need to drop. So I don't know if you wanna make somebody else a cohost.
- 0:20:58 NatNat Yeah. We got, like, we got, like, seven minutes left. Ryan, are you good? Can you hear us? So I can send you the cohost as well. Oh, no. He's not.
- 0:22:33 Wolf With... Without acquisition, I I do think so. They're they're bleeding so much money. I mean, that's why they shut down the whole thing because they were losing massive amounts of everything. And, like, they they were…
- 0:26:43 Wolf I agree with that. And that's why I don't think they're actually going to IPO. I think they're dangling that in there or or to stay relevant in the news cycle and so forth. Anthropic and everybody else stealing their…
Wrap: both sides of the AI narrative, 'physical intelligence', close
- 0:31:21 NatNat Fair point. Fair point. I do think that if OpenAI does IPO and they get into trouble, I think it's going to hinder Microsoft a little bit. But you're right. At some point, they'll be able to absorb it and continue…
- 0:33:10 Wolf Yeah. Great space. I just wish that I could have been more But, yeah, it's really good stuff, and I I think it's really interesting. And what's gonna go forward, I think it's really cool. And earlier when you're…
- 0:33:48 NatNat Noted. That's actually great. I haven't heard physical intelligence before. That's actually a really good one. And definitely double tapping on what you said in robotics for sure. Milo, anything that you wanna add…
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