On the mic
Summary
Monday show hosted by NatNat from the @ATC_Markets account, with Ryan co-hosting from his own account and Moni, Milo, Samara and Wolf on stage. The Space rugged after about an hour when NatNat's X app crashed, and the conversation continued in a second Space (SI conversation take 2). The main topic is Anthropic's IPO filing: NatNat walks through the reported timeline (roadshow the week of November 9, trading expected around November 16, before Thanksgiving), the ANT ticker, the multi-class share structure and the single class F golden share held by a founder LLC of the seven cofounders that carries 50.1% of the voting power with no economic rights. Ryan, who spent the day in the filings, says the structure is fairly standard, is surprised how fast Anthropic reached positive operating cash flow, says he is not a buyer of the IPO, warns it will dilute through ATM offerings and calls the IPO a bellwether for 2027 and 2028. Moni asks about paying vendors in equity and dot-com comparisons; Ryan's bigger worry is revenue recognition on partner revenue. Milo calls a $2T valuation ridiculous, recalls buying CoreWeave after its IPO dip and says he would want to know where the big holders got in. NatNat covers the net loss figures, the early lock-up sales and the catastrophic-risk warnings in the filing. The crew debates OpenAI vs Anthropic in enterprise, Google and xAI's cost advantages, Meta's Muse app (about 10.2M downloads in its first 40 days) and whether businesses will trust Meta with their data. NatNat brings up Microsoft offering voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 senior employees to free up capital for AI, and Ryan floats his speculative take that Microsoft ends up buying OpenAI rather than OpenAI going public. Moni mentions the new ATC calls board and archive. Market talk is discussion, not advice.
Chapters
Key quotes
“dive into the Anthropic story. I believe we officially have a date as of today. It is November 16. Trading is expecting to start in early November twenty twenty six as early as around November 16 or the week of the sixteenth, but definitely before Thanksgiving. Formal marketing and roadshow should begin the week of…”
NatNat0:06:20Share on X
“I I, you know, I spent a good portion of the day reading through their their filings. I mean, I am a bit taken aback how they were able to kind of get to operating cash flow positive as quickly as they did. Now they did increase their sales by three x quarter over quarter. So, you know, maybe the future's bright. I…”
Ryan0:11:24Share on X
“Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway... But but that 48.4 is the result of five four, five splits on Tesla. And this is the final part I'll make on on on Anthropic. Just understand this if you get into it. They are going to dilute, dilute, dilute ATM all day, every day. So just be smart. If you, you know, you get a nuke on on…”
“So... Yes. Hello. A 2,000,000,000,000 valuation or whatever it is is completely ridiculous, but we saw SpaceX do something similar. I would assume that even if it goes up, it's gonna come back down. And I will say this because I was an early investor to CoreWeave shortly after IPO. It crashed. I bought in. I ended up…”
Milo0:22:14Share on X
“Nobody's trusting Zuck with their business data. Let's just get past that. That guy is a walking”
Excerpts
Open: busy news day, the ATC archive and calls board, welcomes
- 0:00:30 Moni My god. I was like, every time I looked, there was more news.
- 0:00:59 NatNat I don't... So what's very interesting with an... With Anthropic, and I guess we can dive into it when it... Once everybody else comes in, but it's the shareholder percentage and the... And how how much percent the…
- 0:03:05 Moni Brad said tomorrow maybe he was sharing news, so I don't know if he's joining today.
- 0:04:17 NatNat Think that, the whole spaces thing is, the fact that we can go on the ATC website and and Yeah. Prompt what we want and listen to the recording and look at all
- 0:05:17 Wolf Doing good. As usual, just happy to be here with you guys. And, yeah, had a
Anthropic IPO: date, ANT ticker, share classes and the 50.1% founder golden share
- 0:06:20 NatNat dive into the Anthropic story. I believe we officially have a date as of today. It is November 16. Trading is expecting to start in early November twenty twenty six as early as around November 16 or the week of the…
- 0:09:36 Moni you think. It's interesting. So I don't know if you know this. Jack Clark actually was a reporter. I had no idea. I guess I had seen his his binary before, but I didn't connect the dots until another reporter, like…
- 0:10:37 NatNat Yes. That's the other thing too. So we have Ryan up here too. Curious to see what he thinks.
- 0:11:24 Ryan I I, you know, I spent a good portion of the day reading through their their filings. I mean, I am a bit taken aback how they were able to kind of get to operating cash flow positive as quickly as they did. Now they…
- 0:13:34 Ryan Yeah. I mean, that's always the issue. Right? But most people don't read through the fine print. Right? So, you know, if if they vote on something that the general... Or the majority of the common share holders vote…
Vendor equity, revenue recognition, valuation, where the big holders got in; Anthropic's losses
- 0:17:55 NatNat I see Monica... Great point, Ryan. Monica has her hand up, and then there's another point I wanna I wanna make on Anthropic, and then we can say hi to Samar. And I see Milo laughing. Milo, come up. I shot you the…
- 0:19:54 Moni That's what people are saying... Asking if that's happening.
- 0:21:22 NatNat I'm not... Thank you, Monica. Samara, welcome, my friend. How are you?
- 0:23:09 Milo No. I'm talking about Anthropic. Right? So I knew so I knew I knew where I kinda... Where I... Where was the comfort zone for me to go into CoreWeave, and I just happened to end up underneath NVIDIA. Right? So then…
- 0:24:19 NatNat Yeah. So Zoom, Zoom, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, AMD, they all own a stake in it, AMD being a smaller amount, though.
Will AI (SI) keep growing GDP; OpenAI vs Anthropic for enterprise
- 0:26:02 Ryan But apparently, not nowadays. Right? Like, you know what I'm saying? If if if AI or if SI... I don't wanna get shadow banned. If SI does not continue to grow The US's GDP, which I think ties kind of into what Moni was…
- 0:27:21 Ryan underhanded or dastardly. Right? I'm just saying, you know, I look from quarter to quarter in the last two quarters, that's a pretty significant jump. Now does that... Is that telling me that the market, like, product…
- 0:29:20 Ryan Well, in the business world, how do you compete, Moni? There's only two ways. Right? You're either a better product or you compete on price.
- 0:30:30 Ryan Yeah. No. They absolutely are. But in the business world, it's all quad. I I guess... And and I don't... I'm not trying to be sexist here, but, like, there's... A lot of times, OpenAI, it feels like they wanna get half…
- 0:31:09 Ryan But my kids don't talk about, like, Claude. Right? They don't say I'm gonna Claude it. They say I'm gonna GPT it. Right? So That's true. End of the day, OpenAI, whether it was a mistake or not, I don't know. You know…
Google, xAI, Meta's Muse app and trust in Meta with business data; enterprise AI governance
- 0:32:06 Ryan But I do think that I think that x... SSI or whatever you wanna call it. I think with the Grock bot, at some point, Elon just goes, yeah. I'm all good. You know why? Because everything is self contained. He's got all…
- 0:33:59 Ryan It's like like... I mean, I don't know how else to explain it, but, like, you know, they they have an audience. Right? And that's what they're catering to. I I see it all the time when I... Like, I'm literally sitting…
- 0:36:09 Ryan Yeah. But they're they're only, what, eight weeks out from launch, and they've got true. That they've got almost 15,000,000 downloads?
- 0:36:53 Moni Yeah. Because ChatGPT was the fastest kinda... Had the fastest growth ever when it came... When it launched, it, like, quickly jumped to a 100,000,000, if I remember correctly. No. They've stayed there, which is…
- 0:37:55 Moni You don't need to have Espionage. I'm just kidding. I didn't say that. Anyway, can we delete that from the
Anthropic lock-up exceptions and catastrophic-risk warnings in the filing
- 0:42:25 NatNat Also, real quick on a quick note in terms of structure, enter... And lock up period and expiration. So Anthropic is allowing early investors and employees to sell shares before the traditional 180 restriction expires…
- 0:43:42 Ryan mean? You you guys are getting what you asked for. The world's gonna end, but by my IPO.
- 0:43:51 Ryan I mean, I'm not a Dario fan, so just FYI. And and maybe that... I don't know, if that's coming out.
- 0:44:02 Ryan I do have a bit of a bias. I'm not... I I I definitely am not a big fan. But, you know, they they have been very successful, and you can't take that away from them. So
Microsoft's 60,000-person voluntary buyout to fund AI
- 0:44:27 NatNat Yeah. There she goes. Alright. In the meantime, while we bring her up, Ryan, you actually brought up this story earlier today as well on the world spaces, and I thought this was actually very interesting in terms of…
- 0:45:27 Moni Huge number. 60,000 is such a big number. I mean, if you think about just... But I think this speaks to how... And we've talked a lot about it, how AI is gonna change how companies are structured. You're gonna have…
- 0:46:59 Ryan Yeah. I mean, go ahead, guys. I mean, like, again, there's a lot of metrics that go into this. I've been through this, on two occasions after, being acquired by a couple of large corporations. You know, McKinsey comes…
- 0:48:01 Ryan and are earning a significant amount. And they're just waiting for, you know, when they can retire. Right? So even if they offered... I mean, on average, the couple that I've been through from my research, for every…
- 0:49:22 Ryan take that restructuring and apply it as a one time hit or maybe they break it up into multiples across their earnings, and they'll come out this way more efficient. I do have a sneaky suspicion. And, again, this is…
Ryan's take: Microsoft buys OpenAI instead of an OpenAI IPO; Copilot, deal amendments (cut off)
- 0:50:02 NatNat Go ahead. Before we before we we we we crack that one open, so I I I was diving deep into the background. And and so Microsoft, they have their, their employees or, the way they structure the hiring, they have it by…
- 0:51:11 Ryan Yeah. They do. They own a huge stake. And if you look at the majority of the revenue that's come in the last couple of quarters from Microsoft, it can be attributed directly to OpenAI. And I think that... I don't know…
- 0:55:02 Ryan Yeah. Maybe. And, you know, maybe you guys are all laughing at me,
- 0:56:15 Ryan Yeah. And look. You know, I... I'm just speculating like the rest of us, but, you know, when we have these x or SI conversations, right, we... We're always talking about Anthropic and open... Or ChatGPT, GrockBot, you…
- 1:00:04 Ryan Like like, if if Microsoft bought OpenAI for... I don't know. Like, they could probably pay
Short excerpts from the auto-generated transcript. Listen on X for the full show.
Topics and tickers
Ask your AI about this show: Use ATC in Claude or ChatGPT
Show discussion, not financial advice.