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Episode · Oct 26, 2026 ·

ATC: Anthropic IPO + Current State of SI (part 1, cut off)

On the mic

Summary

0:00:20

Anthropic IPO Details Revealed

NatNat announced the IPO date around November 16, 2026, with ticker ANT and explained the share classes. Class F golden share held by a founder LLC gives seven cofounders 50.1 percent voting power on most matters while carrying no economic rights. Ryan called the founder controlled structure typical and noted Anthropic reached operating cash flow positive after tripling sales quarter over quarter.

0:00:20Busy news day, the ATC archive and calls board, welcomes

Moments0:06:16
0:17:55

Vendor Equity Revenue Concerns

Moni asked about paying vendors with equity and whether it signals bubble risks like the dot com era. Ryan said it is limited to strategic partners and not at dot com levels but flagged revenue recognition as a bigger worry where partner revenue might be counted without offsetting expenses. Milo discussed the 2 trillion valuation calling it ridiculous and stressed checking where big holders like DX, YZ, VTR, Zoom, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, NVIDIA, and AMD got in.

0:17:55Anthropic's losses

0:26:02

AI Growth Enterprise Battle

Ryan said if SI fails to keep growing US GDP there will be big global trouble and stressed validating Anthropic revenue growth. Moni noted OpenAI aggressively discounting for enterprise clients while Anthropic seeks long term higher price contracts and said companies avoid marrying one model. Ryan predicted Google finishes in the top two and highlighted xAI advantages from self contained data centers GPUs and X data while discussing Meta Muse downloads and trust issues with business data.

0:42:25

Lock Up Warnings in Filing

NatNat said Anthropic allows early investors and employees to sell before the 180 day lock up expires. NatNat highlighted catastrophic risk warnings in the IPO filing including loss of control of powerful AI as a first order global security threat and AI behaving autonomously in unintended ways. Ryan added they are warning the world could end but still doing the IPO at a high valuation.

Moments0:42:25
0:44:27

Microsoft Buyout Funds AI Push

NatNat reported Microsoft offered voluntary buyouts to 60,000 employees or 27 percent of its workforce mostly at senior levels to reallocate capital toward AI and data centers. Moni said this reflects AI driving flatter organizations and smaller teams. Ryan speculated Microsoft is preparing to buy OpenAI outright instead of letting it IPO citing their deep ties multiple deal amendments and revenue overlap while noting the buyouts create a leaner more efficient company.

0:50:02Copilot

Moments0:44:27

Key quotes

“dive into the Anthropic story. I believe we officially have a date as of today. It is November 16. Trading is expecting to start in early November twenty twenty six as early as around November 16 or the week of the sixteenth, but definitely before Thanksgiving. Formal marketing and roadshow should begin the week of…”

NatNat0:06:20Share on X

“I I, you know, I spent a good portion of the day reading through their their filings. I mean, I am a bit taken aback how they were able to kind of get to operating cash flow positive as quickly as they did. Now they did increase their sales by three x quarter over quarter. So, you know, maybe the future's bright. I…”

Ryan0:11:24Share on X

“Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So anyway... But but that 48.4 is the result of five four, five splits on Tesla. And this is the final part I'll make on on on Anthropic. Just understand this if you get into it. They are going to dilute, dilute, dilute ATM all day, every day. So just be smart. If you, you know, you get a nuke on on…”

Ryan0:17:00Share on X

“So... Yes. Hello. A 2,000,000,000,000 valuation or whatever it is is completely ridiculous, but we saw SpaceX do something similar. I would assume that even if it goes up, it's gonna come back down. And I will say this because I was an early investor to CoreWeave shortly after IPO. It crashed. I bought in. I ended up…”

Milo0:22:14Share on X

“Nobody's trusting Zuck with their business data. Let's just get past that. That guy is a walking”

Milo0:37:18Share on X

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Show discussion, not financial advice.